Match Info

AUSTRALIA: NPL QUEENSLAND - ROUND 11

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday


	Moreton Bay United		Queensland Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3.9	1.95
	2.95	3.65	1.95
	3.02	4	2.07
	3.1	3.6	1.95
	3.08	3.85	1.99	Watch
	3.05	3.9	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (4.54)	3.82 ↓ (4)	1.98 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreton Bay United
29.9%

Draw
23.9%

Queensland Lions
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20%

22.7%

57.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

24.7%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreton Bay United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreton Bay United's performance.

Queensland Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Queensland Lions might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreton Bay United than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreton Bay United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queensland Lions than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Queensland Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

The neighbours in a tournament table will play in a very interesting match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Queensland (Play Offs: ) and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreton Bay won 1.

Moreton Bay is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lions is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Lions have a series of home games.

Lions will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Moreton Bay won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 12-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Moreton Bay won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreton Bay United
Australian NPL Queensland
13.05.23	Peninsula Power - Moreton Bay United	2:1 ✺
06.05.23	Moreton Bay United - Brisbane Roar Youth	3:1 ✺
30.04.23	Brisbane City - Moreton Bay United	2:2 ✺
22.04.23	Moreton Bay United - Sunshine Coast Wanderers	1:0 ✺
08.04.23	Redlands United - Moreton Bay United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWTWW
- Queensland Lions
Australian NPL Queensland
14.05.23	Queensland Lions - Eastern Suburbs	4:4 ✺
06.05.23	Queensland Lions - Gold Coast Knights	1:1 ✺
29.04.23	Queensland Lions - Rochedale Rovers	1:3 ✺
23.04.23	Queensland Lions - Olympic FC	2:1 ✺
09.04.23	Queensland Lions - Gold Coast United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Queensland
14.08.22	Queensland Lions - Moreton Bay United	3:1
04.06.22	Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions	1:3
17.10.21	Queensland Lions - Moreton Bay United	4:1
08.05.21	Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions	3:3
13.09.20	Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions	2:1
04.03.20	Queensland Lions - Moreton Bay United	4:1
29.05.19	Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions	2:2

Moreton Bay United - Queensland Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide