Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Morpeth Town		Southport

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.1
	2.98	3.4	2.15
	2.95	3.47	2.17
	3	3.4	2.2	Watch
	2.66	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.63)	3.36 ↑ (3.2)	2.21 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
31.5%

Draw
27.2%

Southport
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

28.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

28.2%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Southport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southport than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Morpeth Town - Southport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Slew J. ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, Slew J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 0 - 3, Moore T. ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Morpeth has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Southport has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Southport may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Morpeth has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Southport - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 37.75%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
16.09.25	United of Manchester - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
09.09.25	Morpeth Town - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Prescot Cables - Morpeth Town	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Stockton Town - Morpeth Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTTLL
- Southport
English FA Cup
16.09.25	Southport - Radcliffe	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Radcliffe - Southport	1:1 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Southport - South Shields	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Leamington - Southport	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Scarborough Athletic - Southport	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WTTLL

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