Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 19

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Melløs Stadion (Moss)

Referee: Nervik H. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Moss		Sogndal

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.75	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.60	2.80
	2.35	3.8	2.52
	2.19	4.12	3.07
	2.15	3.97	2.88	Watch
	2.08	4	3
	2.09	3.74	3.09	Watch
	2.06	3.7	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.4)	3.84 ↓ (4.08)	2.92 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moss
43.6%

Draw
24.4%

Sogndal
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

22.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

22.7%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moss has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Sogndal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sogndal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moss than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sogndal than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sogndal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Moss - Sogndal Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Moss will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Sogndal will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Sogndal (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sogndal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eriksen M. (G) 3. Strande K. (C) 17. Andersen P. 5. Jebali O. 2. Cassidy M. 16. Kvale W. 8. Vold Krohg H. 14. Musbaudeen J. 19. Overgaard L. 20. Semmen N. 9. Aga O.	1. Jendal L. (G) 4. Hovland E. (C) 14. Haruna J. 35. Hillestad E. L. 88. Onyango R. 5. Granheim S. A. 16. Vapne L. 23. Barkarson A. 19. Pippola T. 10. Skaanes K. 15. Helen O.
Substitutes
26. Chidi E. 35. Christiansen M. 4. Harrison K. 31. Harveg J. 23. Hermanstad R. 22. Ogbole J. 12. Rylandsholm M. (G) 27. Selnaes J. S. 29. Sorensen K.	9. Arierhi K. 36. Aroy M. 39. Flo E. 31. Kongelf D. 32. Oren M. 38. Sundal A. (G)
Coaches
Bakke G.	Bakke E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Kvale W. ⚽, Cassidy M. (A),
36', Haruna J. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Helen O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 2 - 1, Semmen N. ⚽, Overgaard L. (A),
62', Hillestad E. L. ↓, Flo E. ↑,
62', Haruna J. ↓, Arierhi K. ↑,
62', Onyango R. ↓, Oren M. ↑,
73', Overgaard L. ↓, Selnaes J. S. ↑,
73', Semmen N. ↓, Sorensen K. ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Hovland E. ⚽,
84', Andersen P. ↓, Harveg J. ↑,
84', Aga O. ↓, Harrison K. ↑,
86', Arierhi K. 🟨,
90+3', Vold Krohg H. ↓, Hermanstad R. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moss won 3.

Recent form of Moss has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sogndal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sogndal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Moss won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Moss won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Moss	24	7	4	13	38:54	-16	25
14	Sogndal	23	6	5	12	38:53	-15	23

Last Results with these Odds

Moss - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.94%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Sogndal - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.15%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moss FK
Norwegian NM Cup
22.08.26	Lørenskog - Moss	0:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
15.08.26	Bryne - Moss	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Moss - Odd	3:3 ✺
02.08.26	Hødd - Moss	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Moss - Raufoss	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLL
- Sogndal Fotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.08.26	Sogndal - Sandnes Ulf	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Sogndal - Bryne	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Lyn - Sogndal	3:2 ✺
26.07.26	Sogndal - Ranheim	3:2 ✺
03.07.26	Kongsvinger - Sogndal	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
14.06.26	Sogndal - Moss	2:4
23.08.25	Sogndal - Moss	3:1
30.07.25	Moss - Sogndal	3:1
19.08.24	Moss - Sogndal	3:0
20.04.24	Sogndal - Moss	1:0
07.10.23	Sogndal - Moss	2:1
Norwegian NM Cup
07.06.23	Sogndal - Moss	2:0

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