Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 25

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Jamhuri Stadium (Dodoma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1


	Mtibwa Sugar		JKT Tanzania

	1	X	2
	3.15	2.8	2.28
	3.33	2.73	2.38	Watch
	3.2	2.88	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.11)	2.8 ↑ (2.77)	2.31 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mtibwa Sugar
28.2%

Draw
32.4%

JKT Tanzania
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

32.1%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

32.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mtibwa Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

JKT Tanzania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mtibwa Sugar than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JKT Tanzania than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Mtibwa Sugar - JKT Tanzania Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Kutisha T. (G) 20. Chicharo 13. Datius P. 69. Evance F. 24. Laurent A. 6. Lyawatwa H. 21. Magata F. 11. Mhesa I. 45. Mkopi S. 17. Msafiri K. 12. Nyangi J.	30. Gonzo O. (G) 17. Bajana S. 12. Bryson D. 4. Kapalata H. 21. Karabaka S. 3. Kilemile A. 22. Kombo K. 31. Machezo A. 34. Manyama P. 41. Mussa P. 51. Peter P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Peter P. ⚽, Bryson D. (A),
28', Kombo K. 🟨,
30', Msafiri K. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Lyawatwa H. ⚽,
42', 1 - 2, Peter P. ⚽,
45', Mhesa I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Bryson D. ↓, Mfaume K. ↑,
66', Kilemile A. 🟨,
68', 2 - 2, Magata F. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Lyawatwa H. 🟨,
81', Karabaka S. ↓, Maranya R. ↑,
89', Mkopi S. ↓, Derrick M. ↑,
89', Magata F. ↓, Hafidh R. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mtibwa Sugar won 1.

Mtibwa Sugar has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

JKT Tanzania's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mtibwa Sugar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

JKT Tanzania could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mtibwa Sugar won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mtibwa Sugar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	JKT Tanzania	6	2	1	3	7:10	-3	7

Last Results with these Odds

JKT Tanzania - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 39.33%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mtibwa Sugar FC
Tanzanian Premier League
20.05.26	TRA United - Mtibwa Sugar	2:1 ✺
14.05.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Kinondoni MC	4:3 ✺
09.05.26	Singida Black Stars - Mtibwa Sugar	4:0 ✺
06.05.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Dodoma Jiji	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Azam	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL
- JKT Tanzania
Tanzanian Premier League
21.05.26	JKT Tanzania - Singida Fountain Gate	2:2 ✺
12.05.26	TRA United - JKT Tanzania	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	JKT Tanzania - Mbeya City	1:0 ✺
06.05.26	Simba - JKT Tanzania	1:0 ✺
30.04.26	JKT Tanzania - Kinondoni MC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
03.12.25	JKT Tanzania - Mtibwa Sugar	0:0
29.04.24	JKT Tanzania - Mtibwa Sugar	2:1
03.11.23	Mtibwa Sugar - JKT Tanzania	1:2
18.07.21	JKT Tanzania - Mtibwa Sugar	2:1
19.12.20	Mtibwa Sugar - JKT Tanzania	1:0
25.01.19	JKT Tanzania - Mtibwa Sugar	0:0

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