Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Mġarr United		Vittoriosa Stars

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.85	3.4
	1.81	4.13	3.07
	1.84	4.29	3.17	Watch
	1.75	3.7	3.4
	1.73	4.05	3.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.82)	4 ↑ (3.63)	3.33 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mġarr United
50.5%

Draw
22.5%

Vittoriosa Stars
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

25.2%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

24.2%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Vittoriosa Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vittoriosa Stars than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Mġarr United - Vittoriosa Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Fenech M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
76', 1 - 1, Carabott S. ⚽,

Preview

Mġarr United is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vittoriosa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Vittoriosa has had a series of home games.

In this match, Mġarr United is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mġarr United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Vittoriosa	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
08.03.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Mġarr United	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Marsa - Mġarr United	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	5:0 ✺
14.02.26	Gudja United - Mġarr United	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mġarr United - Fgura United	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTL
- Vittoriosa Stars
Maltese Challenge League
08.03.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Żurrieq	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Melita	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
27.09.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Mġarr United	1:0

Mġarr United - Vittoriosa Stars: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide