Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Mġarr United		Gudja United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.45	2.88	Watch
	2.03	3.46	2.92
	2.06	3.72	2.96	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3
	2.06	3.5	3.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.07)	3.48 ↑ (3.46)	2.96 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mġarr United
43.7%

Draw
25.9%

Gudja United
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

26%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

25.1%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The chances for Gudja United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gudja United than the current prediction. (-1%)

Mġarr United - Gudja United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Mġarr United is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gudja United has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gudja United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mġarr United might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mġarr United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mġarr United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3
15	Gudja	2	0	0	2	0:5	-5	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
06.04.26	Mġarr United - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Mġarr United - Vittoriosa Stars	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Mġarr United	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Marsa - Mġarr United	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWWW
- Gudja United
Maltese Challenge League
04.04.26	Gudja United - Żebbuġ Rangers	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Gudja United - Mtarfa	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Marsa - Gudja United	3:3 ✺
28.02.26	Santa Lucia - Gudja United	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Gudja United - Żurrieq	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
14.02.26	Gudja United - Mġarr United	0:0
15.09.24	Mġarr United - Gudja United	0:1

Mġarr United - Gudja United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide