Match Info
Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 5Date: 6 April 2026, MondayLocation: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)
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Mġarr United |
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Santa Lucia |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.35 |
3.55 |
2.48 |
 Watch |
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2.31 |
3.74 |
2.44 |
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2.34 |
3.8 |
2.48 |
Watch |
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2.3 |
3.3 |
2.45 |
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2.33 |
3.6 |
2.46 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.33 ↓
(2.4) |
3.6 ↓
(3.62) |
2.46 ↓
(2.49) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Mġarr United
38.6% | Draw
24.9% | Santa Lucia
36.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)Mġarr United - Santa Lucia Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 66', 1 - 0, Igiebor W. ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 1, Petkovski F. ⚽,
Preview
Mġarr United is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).Santa Lucia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1). In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mġarr United won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:12. (average 2.8:3).Including home match between the teams, Mġarr United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 10 | Mgarr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Santa Lucia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Santa Lucia - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.69%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Maltese Challenge League | | | 23.11.25 | Mġarr United - Santa Lucia | 3:3 | | 02.03.25 | Santa Lucia - Mġarr United | 1:1 | | 02.02.25 | Santa Lucia - Mġarr United | 5:3 | | Maltese FA Trophy | | | 07.02.24 | Santa Lucia - Mġarr United | 3:4 penalties |
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