Match Info

J3 League - Round 9

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Ryūkyū

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.55
	2.5	3.2	2.6
	2.61	3.28	2.65	Watch
	2.5	3	2.5
	2.5	3.16	2.54	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.08)	3.16 ↓ (3.45)	2.57 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
36.2%

Draw
28.7%

Ryūkyū
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

26.1%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

25.8%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nagano Parceiro's form might have worsened.

Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagano Parceiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Matsubara S. (G) 5. Hasegawa Y. 3. Tomita K. 24. Sunamori K. 33. Ando K. 10. Yamanaka R. 25. Tanaka K. 46. Koga S. 14. Sanda N. 18. Ukita K. 19. Ito K.	16. Sato H. (G) 15. Araki R. 3. Kikuchi S. 14. Suzuki J. 4. Fujiharu H. 24. Sato Y. 13. Iwamoto S. 7. Motegi S. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 18. Hiramatsu S. 39. Ihara A.
Substitutes
15. Higuchi K. 20. Kano H. 13. Konishi H. 17. Kutsuna K. 35. Lee S. 23. Lim Ji-hoon 11. Shin K. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 22. Yoshida K.	17. Einaga T. 8. Iwabuchi R. 20. Nagai S. 32. Narita A. 33. Ozawa A. (G) 19. Sato M. 23. Sota K. 89. Takagi D. 28. Tsuha J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Ukita K. ↓, Higuchi K. ↑,
41', Tomita K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Suzuki J. ⚽, Tomidokoro Y. (A),
60', Iwamoto S. ↓, Nagai S. ↑,
60', Tomidokoro Y. ↓, Sota K. ↑,
62', Sato Y. 🟨,
62', Tanaka K. 🟨,
70', Tanaka K. ↓, Kutsuna K. ↑,
70', Sanda N. ↓, Shin K. ↑,
73', Hiramatsu S. 🟨,
76', Ihara A. ↓, Sato M. ↑,
76', Motegi S. ↓, Einaga T. ↑,
81', Yamanaka R. ↓, Yoshida K. ↑,
81', Ando K. ↓, Konishi H. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Kutsuna K. ⚽, Sunamori K. (A),
90', Hiramatsu S. ↓, Iwabuchi R. ↑,
90+5', Koga S. 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 13).

Nagano is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ryūkyū is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ryūkyū could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nagano have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Nagano won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:9 (average 1.8:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Nagano won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
06.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nagano Parceiro	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Nagano Parceiro - Fukushima United	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Nagano Parceiro - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
08.03.25	Nagano Parceiro - Tochigi City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL
- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
05.04.25	Ryūkyū - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Kochi United - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ryūkyū - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Ryūkyū - Avispa Fukuoka	0:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
15.03.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
19.10.24	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:1
14.04.24	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	4:3
30.09.23	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	2:2
11.06.23	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:2

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