Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 30

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Navalcarnero		Rayo Majadahonda

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2
	3.35	3.1	2.02
	3.78	3.14	2.02
	3.61	3.24	1.99	Watch
	3.7	2.9	2
	3.66	3.05	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (3.18)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	2.01 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
25.4%

Draw
29.3%

Rayo Majadahonda
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

28.5%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.5%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Rayo Majadahonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Majadahonda than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Villar J. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Calcada G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, Faure I. ⚽,
58', 1 - 3, Faure I. ⚽,
86', 2 - 3, Dias J. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Navalcarnero won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Rayo Majadahonda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Navalcarnero won 0 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Navalcarnero won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.4:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Navalcarnero	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Navalcarnero - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 28.93%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.03.26	Quintanar del Rey - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Alcalá - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Navalcarnero - Elche Ilicitano	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Socuéllamos - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Navalcarnero - Real Madrid C	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLW
- CF Rayo Majadahonda
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.03.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Alcalá	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Intercity - Rayo Majadahonda	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Socuéllamos	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Orihuela - Rayo Majadahonda	2:3 ✺
01.03.26	Rayo Majadahonda - Getafe B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.11.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Navalcarnero	0:0
02.02.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Navalcarnero	2:1
22.09.24	Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0
07.02.21	Rayo Majadahonda - Navalcarnero	0:0
08.11.20	Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0
Club Friendly
28.07.19	Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
18.02.18	Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda	0:2

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