Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 10 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Bakcell Arena (Baku)

Referee: Fahndrich L. (Sui)


	Neftchi Baku		Beşiktaş

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.8	1.62	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.58
	5.1	3.5	1.63
	5	3.8	1.67
	5.55	3.94	1.63
	5.45	4.05	1.59	Watch
	5.2	4.1	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.12 ↑ (4.46)	3.86 ↑ (3.64)	1.63 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
18.3%

Draw
24.2%

Beşiktaş
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

25.4%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

25%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Neftchi Baku - Beşiktaş Predictions

Users Predictions: Beşiktaş will win (26 of 28 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.32% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brkic I. (G) 21. Zulfugarli I. 44. Yuri Matias 4. Tamas M. 19. Salahly A. 23. Jaber A. 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 27. Yusifli F. 5. Saief K. 9. Shinyashiki A. 11. Lebon K.	34. Gunok M. (C) 24. Rosier V. 12. Amartey D. 6. Colley O. 77. Meras U. 19. Hadziahmetovic A. 8. Ucan S. 83. Fernandes G. 4. Bulut O. 10. Aboubakar V. 40. Muleka J.
Substitutes
82. Abbasov R. 37. Alibayli E. 77. Bogomolskiy E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 17. Hadzhiyev R. 3. Haqverdi H. 41. Hasanov S. 99. Koffi E. 25. Olanare A. 10. Ozobic F.	41. Akgun O. 99. Bulut E. 1. Destanoglu E. (G) 23. Kayra Yilmaz K. 17. Kesgin K. 90. Kilicsoy S. 3. Montero F. 71. Onana J. 7. Rebic A. 21. Tiknaz D. E. 20. Uysal N. 97. Yuvakuran U. (G)
Coaches
Mutu A.	Gunes S.

Preview

1st leg.

Neftchi is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Beşiktaş in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Beşiktaş could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Beşiktaş have a series of home games.

In this match Beşiktaş is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
06.08.23	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Željezničar Sarajevo	2:0 ✺
27.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.23	Spartak Moscow - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
15.07.23	Neftchi Baku - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTLL
- Beşiktaş
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Tirana - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
27.07.23	Beşiktaş - Tirana	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.23	Beşiktaş - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
18.07.23	Beşiktaş - Mezőkövesd-Zsóry	4:0 ✺
15.07.23	Beşiktaş - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWT

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