Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 25

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Newington		Ards

	1	X	2
	2	3.85	2.98
	2.03	4.04	2.88	Watch
	1.98	4.07	3.13
	2.05	3.8	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.88)	3.94 ↑ (3.73)	2.95 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newington
45.6%

Draw
23.3%

Ards
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

24.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

24.2%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newington than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Newington - Ards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newington won 0.

Recent form of Newington has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ards is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newington will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Newington won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Newington won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newington	10	6	2	2	24:18	6	20
11	Ards	10	3	3	4	12:13	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newington FC
Northern Irish Cup
13.01.26	Glenavon - Newington	4:2 ET ✺
Northern Irish Championship
30.12.25	Institute FC - Newington	3:3 ✺
26.12.25	Newington - Queens University Belfast	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Newington - Annagh United	1:5 ✺
29.11.25	Newington - Institute FC	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTWLW
- Ards FC
Northern Irish Cup
10.01.26	Dungannon Swifts - Ards	3:0 ✺
Northern Irish Championship
30.12.25	Armagh City - Ards	0:8 ✺
26.12.25	Ards - Warrenpoint Town	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Dundela - Ards	1:4 ✺
06.12.25	Ards - Loughgall	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
04.10.25	Newington - Ards	0:3
22.02.25	Ards - Newington	1:1
02.11.24	Newington - Ards	2:2
13.04.24	Ards - Newington	1:1
27.02.24	Newington - Ards	1:0
02.12.23	Newington - Ards	4:1
05.08.23	Ards - Newington	1:3

Newington - Ards: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide