Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 11

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Newington		Ards

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.70	3.25
	1.88	3.8	3.25
	1.84	4.03	3
	1.91	4.09	3.15	Watch
	1.8	3.95	2.9
	1.78	3.9	3.44
	1.88	3.85	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.73)	3.9 ↓ (3.95)	3.18 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newington
48.7%

Draw
23%

Ards
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.1%

23.3%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

22.3%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newington than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newington, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ards, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Newington - Ards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

(0 - 2)

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: ) and 11th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newington won 1.

Newington has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Ards is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Newington is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Newington in today's match, at odds of 1.72.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Newington has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:17 (averaging 1.7:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Newington against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9:6 goals (averaging 1.8:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Newington	13	8	2	3	29:22	7	26
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	15:16	-1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newington FC
Northern Irish Championship
03.10.26	Institute FC - Newington	7:0 ✺
26.09.26	Newington - Ballinamallard United	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Strabane Athletic - Newington	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Newington - Rathfriland Rangers	4:0 ✺
15.08.26	Newington - Queens University Belfast	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWW
- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
03.10.26	Ballinamallard United - Ards	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Ards - Strabane Athletic	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ards - Rathfriland Rangers	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Annagh United - Ards	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Ards - Queens University Belfast	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
03.02.26	Ards - Newington	2:1
17.01.26	Newington - Ards	2:0
04.10.25	Newington - Ards	0:3
22.02.25	Ards - Newington	1:1
02.11.24	Newington - Ards	2:2
13.04.24	Ards - Newington	1:1
27.02.24	Newington - Ards	1:0

Newington - Ards