Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Ballinamallard United		Ards

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.20	2.35
	2.62	3.35	2.38
	2.65	3.23	2.35
	2.64	3.45	2.39	Watch
	2.60	3.15	2.30
	2.68	3.56	2.41
	2.60	3.30	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.64)	3.32 ↓ (3.68)	2.36 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballinamallard United
34.4%

Draw
27.2%

Ards
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

25.3%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballinamallard United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Ards has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Ballinamallard United - Ards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 8th in the Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: ) and 11th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ballinamallard won 1.

Ards is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Ards has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ballinamallard has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:36 (averaging 1.2:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ballinamallard against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:24 goals (averaging 1.3:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ballinamallard	10	4	2	4	16:16	0	14
11	Ards	10	3	3	4	12:13	-1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ards - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.45%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballinamallard United
Northern Irish Championship
26.09.26	Newington - Ballinamallard United	4:0 ✺
05.09.26	Loughgall - Ballinamallard United	1:6 ✺
11.08.26	Institute FC - Ballinamallard United	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Ballinamallard United - Bangor	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Crusaders - Ballinamallard United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.3 LWWLT
- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
26.09.26	Ards - Strabane Athletic	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ards - Rathfriland Rangers	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Annagh United - Ards	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Ards - Queens University Belfast	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Ards - Loughgall	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
28.03.26	Ballinamallard United - Ards	0:2
28.02.26	Ards - Ballinamallard United	2:1
31.10.25	Ballinamallard United - Ards	1:0
09.08.25	Ards - Ballinamallard United	3:1
25.01.25	Ballinamallard United - Ards	2:2
07.12.24	Ards - Ballinamallard United	0:1
24.08.24	Ballinamallard United - Ards	2:2

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