Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar)

Referee: De Gabriele M. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
World	Onefootball


	Novi Pazar		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.9	1.65
	3.4	3.6	1.88
	3.6	3.75	1.9	Watch
	4.13	4.1	1.7
	4.84	2.91	1.92	Watch
	4	3.7	1.75
	3.76	3.91	1.92
	4	3.45	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↓ (4.39)	3.67 ↑ (3.51)	1.82 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novi Pazar
23.4%

Draw
25.4%

Jagiellonia Białystok
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

27.3%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

26.6%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novi Pazar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novi Pazar than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	13%	60.9%

Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Novi Pazar will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 41% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Novi Pazar (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Novi Pazar (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Novi Pazar (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Samcovic Z. (G) 23. Marinkovic J. 4. Hadzimujovic A. 27. Kurdic N. 3. Miletic N. 24. Davidovic I. 14. Alic S. 7. Omoregbe B. 22. Ljajic A. (C) 17. Malekinusic M. 11. Opara E.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 5. Polak C. 7. Pozo A. 31. Flach L. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 80. Pietuszewski O. 11. Imaz J. 9. Rallis D.
Substitutes
8. Abdullahi A. 15. Backulja F. 2. Bojat D. 5. Bruncevic E. 6. Cisse A. 9. Iyede S. 25. Mecinovic S. (G) 20. Mirosavic V. 21. Petkovic M. 12. Prekovic M. (G) 28. Sumo V. 16. Togbe S.	19. Cantero A. 82. Costa Silva T. 17. Dieguez A. 8. Drachal D. 25. Jackson A. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 18. Prip L. 10. Pululu A. 3. Stojinovic D. 20. Villar Miki 27. Wdowik B.
Coaches
Gacinovic V.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Rallis D. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Opara E. ⚽, Omoregbe B. (A),
34', Opara E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
60', Malekinusic M. 🟨,
62', Malekinusic M. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
63', Polak C. 🟨,
63', Pozo A. ↓, Villar Miki ↑,
63', Flach L. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
66', Davidovic I. 🟨,
70', Omoregbe B. ↓, Iyede S. ↑,
71', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Stojinovic D. ↑,
71', Drachal D. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
78', Vital B. 🟨,
78', Opara E. ↓, Petkovic M. ↑,
88', Davidovic I. 🟨,
89', Villar Miki 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Pululu A. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent performances by Novi Pazar have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jagiellonia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Jagiellonia might have a minor edge in this game.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Novi Pazar
Club Friendly
10.07.25	Novi Pazar - Spartak Subotica	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Novi Pazar - Mladost Lučani	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Novi Pazar - Radnik Bijeljina	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Novi Pazar - Sloga Doboj	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Novi Pazar - Sarajevo	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLTW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Teplice	0:1 ✺
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	7:1 ✺
02.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

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