Match Info

Gaucho - Troféu Farroupilha - Play Offs - Final

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio do Vale (Novo Hamburgo)


	Novo Hamburgo		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	3.75	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.1
				Watch
	1.89	3.09	4.29
	1.92	3.11	4.4	Watch
	1.85	2.88	4.2
	1.87	3.04	4.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.98)	3.07 ↑ (2.95)	4.16 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novo Hamburgo
48.5%

Draw
29.7%

São Luiz
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

30.4%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

29.7%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novo Hamburgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

São Luiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novo Hamburgo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (+2%)

Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Omar (G) 4. Joao Marcus 3. Romercio 6. Josue 2. Guilherme Mantuan 8. Carlos Maia 5. Amaral (C) 11. Allison 7. Rone 10. Leandro Moura 9. Luam Parede	1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 2. Lucas Hian 3. Heitor 4. Gabriel Santiago 16. Higor 5. Lucas Hulk 8. Araujo (C) 11. Rogerio Sena 10. Valber Junior 25. Vidmar 9. Felipe Rangel
Substitutes
12. Breno Boeno (G) 20. Henrique 18. Jhonata Lima 21. Joao Castro 17. Marcos Vinicius 19. Matheus Batista 22. Muriel 25. Pablo (G) 16. Santana V. 15. Santos C. 13. Vinicius Amaral 14. Vinicius Kiss	14. Caetano 20. de Lima G. N. 18. Denis Germano 21. Eduardo 7. Escuro 22. Felipe Tontini 15. Jean Henrique 6. Marcio Duarte 12. Prezzi (G) 23. Renan (G) 19. Thiago Santos 17. Victor Jesus
Coaches
Rogerio Zimermann	Marques P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Muriel ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Gabriel Santiago ↓, Eduardo ↑,
64', Valber Junior ↓, Escuro ↑,
64', Rogerio Sena ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
65', Josue 🟨,
71', Leandro Moura ↓, Matheus Batista ↑,
73', Vidmar 🟨,
75', 0 - 1, Felipe Rangel ⚽, Escuro (A),
76', Felipe Rangel 🟨,
76', Felipe Rangel ↓, Denis Germano ↑,
77', Vidmar ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
79', Victor Jesus 🟨,
79', Allison 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Luam Parede ⚽, Josue (A),
84', Amaral ↓, Joao Castro ↑,
85', Rone ↓, Henrique ↑,
85', Allison ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
86', Denis Germano 🟨,
89', Gabriel Oliveira 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburgo won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

São Luiz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hamburgo is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Hamburgo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburgo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 0.8:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Novo Hamburgo
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
02.03.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWLW
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
02.03.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	São Luiz - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Caxias - São Luiz	0:2 penalties ✺
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Internacional RS - São Luiz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
02.03.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
03.02.24	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	1:0
02.02.23	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
06.02.22	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	0:0
14.03.21	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	2:0
02.02.20	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	0:0

Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide