Match Info

Gaucho - Round 6

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio do Vale (Novo Hamburgo)


	Novo Hamburgo		Guarany de Bagé

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.25	Watch
	2.22	2.92	3.35	Watch
	2.23	2.89	3.76
	2.23	2.87	3.65	Watch
	2.1	2.8	3.3
	2.19	3.14	3.4	Watch
	2.22	2.8	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.54)	2.92 ↑ (2.89)	3.48 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novo Hamburgo
42.1%

Draw
31.5%

Guarany de Bagé
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

31.4%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

30.8%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novo Hamburgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Novo Hamburgo's performance.

Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarany de Bagé might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novo Hamburgo than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Novo Hamburgo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarany de Bagé could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Omar (G) 3. Romercio 4. Joao Marcus 6. Josue 2. Guilherme Mantuan 8. Carlos Maia 5. Amaral (C) 7. Rone 10. Marcos Vinicius 9. Luam Parede 11. Allison	1. Jonathan (G) 22. Raphinha 13. Alberte 4. Bruno Cardoso 2. Talles 5. David Cunha 8. Murilo (C) 17. Marcao 11. Tony Junior 10. Welder 20. Adailson
Substitutes
12. Breno Boeno (G) 15. de Souza Marques S. 17. Ghiven 21. Joao Castro 19. Matheus Batista 22. Muriel 25. Pablo (G) 20. Sandi Y. 13. Santana V. 18. Santos C. 16. Vinicius Amaral 14. Vinicius Kiss	16. Allan 18. Hiago Lucas 6. Jean Carlos 15. Jean Martim 9. Lucao 7. Marquinhos 3. Michel Bennech 19. Paulinho Souza 12. Thiago Goncalves (G) 14. Vitor Oliveira
Coaches
Rogerio Zimermann	Wiliam Campos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Talles 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Allison ⚽, Carlos Maia (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Rone 🟨,
58', Marcao ↓, Lucao ↑,
58', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Muriel ↑,
69', Adailson ↓, Vitor Oliveira ↑,
69', Raphinha ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
77', Rone ↓, Vinicius Kiss ↑,
79', Talles ↓, Paulinho Souza ↑,
79', David Cunha ↓, Allan ↑,
82', Omar 🟨,
85', Luam Parede ↓, Santana V. ↑,
85', Allison ↓, Matheus Batista ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Matheus Batista ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

Hamburgo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Guarany de Bagé has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hamburgo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hamburgo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Hamburgo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Novo Hamburgo
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.01.26	Avenida - Novo Hamburgo	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Juventude	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Internacional RS - Novo Hamburgo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLTTL
- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
15.01.26	Ypiranga - Guarany de Bagé	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.02.24	Guarany de Bagé - Novo Hamburgo	2:0
16.02.22	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0

Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide