Match Info

Gaucho - Troféu Farroupilha - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)


	Caxias		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.1	4.75	Watch
				Watch
	1.56	3.8	5.6
	1.57	3.94	5.58	Watch
	1.7	3	4.8
	1.8	3.23	4.94	Watch
	1.58	3.75	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)	3.47 ↑ (3.28)	5.2 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
55.7%

Draw
26.6%

São Luiz
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

27.8%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

26.4%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Caxias - São Luiz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo (G) 2. Thiago Ennes 3. Robles Fuentes A. 4. Mauricio Ribeiro 6. Roberto 8. Matheus Nunes 5. Lucas Candido 7. Douglas Skilo (C) 10. Yann Rolim 11. Calyson 9. Jeam	1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 2. Lucas Hian 3. Marcao 4. Gabriel Santiago 16. Higor 7. Escuro 5. Lucas Hulk 8. Araujo (C) 25. Vidmar 9. Felipe Rangel 11. Rogerio Sena
Substitutes
20. Arthur Viana 17. Breno Santos 22. Gustavo Nescau 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 15. Joilson 12. Leo Lang (G) 13. Ronei 14. Victor Sa 18. Vitor Feijao 16. Windson 21. Zanelatto	14. Caetano 20. de Lima G. N. 18. Denis Germano 22. Felipe Tontini 21. Heitor 6. Marcio Duarte 12. Prezzi (G) 10. Valber Junior 17. Victor Jesus
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Marques P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Felipe Rangel ⚽, Araujo (A),
38', Matheus Nunes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yann Rolim ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
46', Felipe Rangel ↓, Valber Junior ↑,
56', Lucas Candido 🟨,
57', Rogerio Sena 🟨,
65', Douglas Skilo ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,
69', Rogerio Sena ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
72', Matheus Nunes ↓, Breno Santos ↑,
72', Jeam ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
74', Araujo ↓, Denis Germano ↑,
80', Thiago Ennes ↓, Ronei ↑,
85', Lucas Hian 🟨,
88', Escuro ↓, Felipe Tontini ↑,
88', Higor ↓, Marcio Duarte ↑,
90+2', Vitor Feijao 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 3)
1, Lucas Candido (Penalty Awarded),
1, Felipe Tontini (Penalty Awarded),
2, Roberto (Penalty Awarded),
2, Vidmar (Penalty Awarded),
3, Gustavo Nescau (Penalty Awarded),
3, Denis Germano (Penalty Awarded),
4, Jhonatan Ribeiro (Penalty Awarded),
4, Gabriel Santiago (Penalty Awarded),
5, Vitor Feijao (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 3.

Caxias is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, São Luiz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Caxias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Caxias is a strong favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Caxias won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
26.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Caxias	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Juventude - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLL
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Internacional RS - São Luiz	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	São Luiz - Ypiranga	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2
11.01.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1
08.02.25	Caxias - São Luiz	1:0
27.01.24	Caxias - São Luiz	2:2
12.02.23	Caxias - São Luiz	3:1
Brazilian Serie D
25.06.22	Caxias - São Luiz	2:1
07.05.22	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1

Caxias - São Luiz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide