Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nueva Chicago (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Delbarba J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Nueva Chicago		Deportivo Morón

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4.33	Watch
	2.15	2.85	3.5
	1.95	2.95	4.4	Watch
	2	2.95	5.09
	1.93	2.92	4.91	Watch
	2	2.9	4
	1.89	3.18	4.46	Watch
	1.95	2.95	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.2)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	4.39 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nueva Chicago
47.3%

Draw
31.4%

Deportivo Morón
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

30.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

30.2%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nueva Chicago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Deportivo Morón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Morón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nueva Chicago than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Morón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferrero F. (G) 4. Martinez A. 2. Callegari S. (C) 6. Soto G. 3. Rizzi F. 11. Almaraz A. 8. Muscia G. 5. Mendez E. 7. Roldan N. 10. Fernandez G. 9. Maggi I.	1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 2. Lorenzon F. 6. Zarate N. 3. Vaquero I. M. 8. Kubiszyn S. 5. Ferreira P. 10. Gonzalez Y. 11. Bittolo M. 7. Sanguinetti F. 9. Costantino I.
Substitutes
15. Arroyo D. 20. Beltramone E. 12. Diaz L. (G) 17. Molinas I. A. 14. Motroni J. 18. Rodriguez I. 13. Rodriguez J. 16. Rodriguez T. 19. Vazquez L. I.	12. Acuna M. (G) 15. Baez F. 16. Burruchaga M. 14. Cortave M. 18. Disanto L. 19. Franco E. 17. Huertas V. 13. Lazza E. 20. Reynaga R.
Coaches
Perazzo W	Otta W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', Otta W. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Gonzalez Y. ⚽,
37', Fernandez G. 🟨,
39', 0 - 2, Costantino I. ⚽,
45', Roldan N. ↓, Rodriguez T. ↑,
45', Fernandez G. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
45+1', Martinez A. 🟨,
45+1', Martinez A. ↓, Motroni J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Bittolo M. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
56', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
61', Mendez E. 🟨,
68', Muscia G. ↓, Molinas I. A. ↑,
70', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Cortave M. ↑,
75', Almaraz A. ↓, Vazquez L. I. ↑,
81', 🟨,
81', Gonzalez Y. 🟨,
82', 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nueva Chicago won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Nueva Chicago could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nueva Chicago will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Nueva Chicago won 0 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:6 (average 0.4:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Nueva Chicago won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3 (average 0.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Nueva Chicago
Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.04.25	Central Norte - Nueva Chicago	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Nueva Chicago - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Nueva Chicago - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Chaco For Ever - Nueva Chicago	2:1 ✺
10.03.25	Nueva Chicago - Defensores de Belgrano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLLT
- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.04.25	Deportivo Morón - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Deportivo Morón	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Morón - Defensores de Belgrano	1:0 ✺
23.03.25	Chacarita Juniors - Deportivo Morón	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Deportivo Morón - San Telmo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.10.24	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	1:1
26.05.24	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	1:0
24.09.23	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	0:0
13.05.23	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	1:0
15.08.22	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	1:1
09.02.20	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	0:0
19.08.19	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	0:0

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