Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Náxara		Alfaro

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.3	4.25
	1.8	3.35	4.55
	1.82	3.45	4.04	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.85)	3.35 ↑ (3.25)	4.33 ↑ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náxara
51.6%

Draw
27.3%

Alfaro
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

28%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

23.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náxara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Alfaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náxara than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náxara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfaro than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alfaro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Náxara - Alfaro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Rodriguez Miguel (Pen),
36', 2 - 0, Villoslada I. ⚽,
39', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Náxara is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alfaro is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Alfaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Náxara is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Náxara won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Náxara won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náxara CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.11.25	SD Logroñés - Náxara	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Náxara - Zaragoza B	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Náxara - Eibar	2:4 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
26.10.25	Basconia - Náxara	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Náxara - Utebo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLL
- CD Alfaro
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
09.11.25	Alfaro - Ejea	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Amorebieta - Alfaro	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Alfaro - Alavés B	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	SD Logroñés - Alfaro	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Zaragoza B - Alfaro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
09.02.20	Alfaro - Náxara	0:2
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
25.02.18	Náxara - Alfaro	3:1

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