Match Info

2nd Division - Promotion Group - Round 28

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Naestved Stadion (Naestved)


	Næstved BK		Aarhus Fremad

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.4	1.78
	3.7	3.45	1.81
	3.7	3.54	1.92
	3.84	3.51	1.92	Watch
	4	3.3	1.75
	3.8	3.54	1.94
	3.7	3.45	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↓ (6.04)	3.46 ↓ (4.59)	1.85 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Næstved BK
24.2%

Draw
26.4%

Aarhus Fremad
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.1%

19.9%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.7%

19.3%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Næstved BK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Næstved BK's performance.

Aarhus Fremad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aarhus Fremad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Næstved BK than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Næstved BK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarhus Fremad than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aarhus Fremad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Næstved BK - Aarhus Fremad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jorgensen J. (G) 10. Carlson M. 9. Christensen F. 15. Friedrich C. 5. Host M. 8. Kongstedt M. 6. Madsen S. 29. Nehme A. 22. Overgaard C. J. 19. Rugaard M. 3. Tattum S.	1. Kiilerich K. (G) 3. Agnarsson M. 14. de Claville Berthelsen M. 28. Egerton E. 6. Grube F. 16. Holvad A. 27. Kirchheiner M. 17. Kubel M. 11. Lunding K. 4. Pisani A. 29. Segun
Substitutes
26. Christiansen M. 12. El-Beltagi J. (G) 16. Jorgensen M. 27. Melgaard M. 18. Moller G. 23. Rusborg E. 30. Villadsen M.	23. Andreasen O. 8. Baekgard S. 70. Beluli J. 34. Denius S. 5. Nissen E. 15. Torp F. J. 30. Vedel-Birch Andersen C. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Kirchheiner M. ⚽,
27', 0 - 2, Holvad A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 3, Egerton E. ⚽,

Preview

Næstved is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aarhus Fremad is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aarhus Fremad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aarhus Fremad is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Næstved won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Næstved won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Næstved BK
Danish 2 Division
14.05.25	AB Copenhagen - Næstved BK	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Næstved BK - Middelfart	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Aarhus Fremad - Næstved BK	7:0 ✺
27.04.25	Skive IK - Næstved BK	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Næstved BK - Fremad Amager	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLLWL
- Aarhus Fremad
Danish 2 Division
14.05.25	Middelfart - Aarhus Fremad	0:0 ✺
09.05.25	Aarhus Fremad - Skive IK	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Aarhus Fremad - Næstved BK	7:0 ✺
26.04.25	Fremad Amager - Aarhus Fremad	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	AB Copenhagen - Aarhus Fremad	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 2 Division
03.05.25	Aarhus Fremad - Næstved BK	7:0
10.11.24	Næstved BK - Aarhus Fremad	1:0
17.08.24	Aarhus Fremad - Næstved BK	2:0
31.10.21	Næstved BK - Aarhus Fremad	1:1
12.09.21	Aarhus Fremad - Næstved BK	1:1

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