Match Info

DENMARK: 1ST DIVISION - ROUND 12

Date: 8 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Tintshop Park (Naestved)

Referee: Baek J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Næstved BK		Hobro

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.45
	2.55	3.45	2.5	Watch
	2.66	3.68	2.53
	3	3.5	2.05	Watch
	2.6	3.58	2.51	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.44)	3.49 ↓ (3.6)	2.44 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Næstved BK
35.2%

Draw
26.7%

Hobro
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

25.1%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

23.8%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Næstved BK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Næstved BK's performance.

Hobro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hobro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Næstved BK than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Næstved BK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hobro than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hobro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Næstved BK - Hobro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Næstved will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Hobro will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hobro: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dannevang N. (G) 17. Njai A. 22. Overgaard C. J. 4. Bust L. 5. Host M. 90. Carlson M. 8. Kongstedt M. 12. Madsen S. 10. Dhaflaoui S. 11. Ladefoged M. 9. Christensen F.	1. Fischer J. (G) 7. Klitten O. 18. Sogaard E. 3. Boge J. 13. Dietz F. 27. Klitten L. 11. Kristensen M. 33. Freundlich M. 17. Rasmussen V. 10. Brajanac M. 9. Skjellerup L.
Substitutes
2. Banda P. 6. Enemark C. 27. Hassan M. (G) 16. Jorgensen M. 24. Kjaer Mikkelsen V. 40. Lenart W. 14. Madsen J. 81. Molvadgaard M. 20. Rygaard B.	20. Compaore M. 12. Jacobsen M. 2. Jakobsen S. 5. Ouattara S. 24. Overgaard O. 15. Rasmussen S. 4. Tjornelund J. 73. Tonning W. (G) 21. Yoda A.
Coaches
Braune P.	Thomsen M.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

Næstved is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Hobro is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hobro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Næstved won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Næstved won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Næstved BK
Danish 1 Division
01.10.23	Fredericia - Næstved BK	4:1 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
27.09.23	Næstved BK - Midtjylland	0:2 ✺
Danish 1 Division
24.09.23	Næstved BK - Hillerød	2:2 ✺
17.09.23	Vendsyssel - Næstved BK	1:1 ✺
04.09.23	Næstved BK - HB Køge	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTT
- Hobro IK
Danish 1 Division
01.10.23	Hobro - Kolding IF	2:3 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
27.09.23	Hobro - OB Odense	0:1 ✺
Danish 1 Division
22.09.23	B.93 Copenhagen - Hobro	1:2 ✺
15.09.23	Hobro - Horsens	0:1 ✺
03.09.23	Helsingør - Hobro	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
28.07.23	Hobro - Næstved BK	3:2
30.10.22	Hobro - Næstved BK	0:0
07.08.22	Næstved BK - Hobro	2:0
21.05.17	Næstved BK - Hobro	0:0

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