Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 11

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)


	Ogre United		Riga 2

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	4.75
				Watch
	1.44	4.53	6.02
	1.54	4.3	4.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.69)	4.34 ↑ (3.8)	5.19 ↑ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
61.3%

Draw
21.1%

Riga 2
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

23.8%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

20.2%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ogre United's performance.

Riga 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Riga 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ogre United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Riga 2 than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Riga 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ogre United - Riga 2 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ogre United (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Ogre United (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ogre United (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perkons E. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 19. Jamonts K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 4. Mamich D. 16. Mashchenko V. 30. Penka R. 9. Silagailis H. 22. Sprukulis K.	1. Kazainis M. (G) 7. Blaubergs M. 18. Dumins D. 14. Kalinovs D. 13. Lanskis L. 4. Muiznieks R. (C) 22. Muzinga N. 20. Paulo Eduardo 11. Poskrjobisevs J. 8. Sarma T. 19. Taiwo A.
Substitutes
88. Abramenko T. 20. Biscuhis K. (G) 14. Juhnovics R. 17. Kivkucans B. 87. Kondratjevs A. 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 27. Veckagans M. 2. Ziemelis R.	21. Bekeris H. 2. Dimpers R. 15. Kocherga O. 16. Kozlovskis D. (G) 17. Nazarovs D. 9. Prudchenko N. 5. Sindlers L. 10. Vorobjovs A. 6. Zemitis R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Silagailis H. ⚽,
40', Kalnins M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Salins D. 🟨,
75', Sprukulis K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Ogre United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ogre United has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ogre United is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
15.06.25	JDFS Alberts - Ogre United	2:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
31.05.25	Valmiera - Ogre United	4:3 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
24.05.25	Rīgas FS 2 - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
18.05.25	Smiltene - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
03.05.25	Augšdaugavas - Ogre United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLLW
- Riga FC 2
Latvian 1 Liga
13.06.25	Riga 2 - JFK Ventspils	2:2 ✺
25.05.25	Olaine - Riga 2	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	Riga 2 - Leevon PPK	1:2 ✺
11.05.25	Mārupe - Riga 2	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Riga 2 - Skanstes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
03.08.24	Ogre United - Riga 2	2:2
07.04.24	Riga 2 - Ogre United	0:0

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