Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: KSK Nika (Oleksandria)

Referee: Tsibulko E. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ukraine	UPL TV
World	Onefootball


	Oleksandriya		Zorya Luhansk

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.35
	2.86	3.36	2.47
	2.92	3.48	2.4	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.85	3.33	2.48	Watch
	3.3	3.2	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.67)	3.29 ↓ (3.62)	2.34 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oleksandriya
31.8%

Draw
28.4%

Zorya Luhansk
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

26.2%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

26.3%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oleksandriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oleksandriya's performance.

Zorya Luhansk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zorya Luhansk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oleksandriya than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oleksandriya that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zorya Luhansk than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zorya Luhansk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Oleksandriya - Zorya Luhansk Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Oleksandriya will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Zorya will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zorya (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Zorya (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Zorya (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
72. Makarenko N. (G) 22. Skorko D. 91. Butko B. 26. Ferreira M. (C) 50. Behiratche J. 90. Vlasyuk D. 27. Cara T. 20. Vashchenko D. 10. Buletsa S. 37. Yade P. 99. Castillo B.	1. Saputin O. (G) 23. Malysh N. 55. Jordan 21. Basic J. 10. Juninho (C) 11. Gorbach I. 88. Bah S. 8. Dryshlyuk K. 27. Jelavic D. 70. Verley R. 17. Zadorozhnyi F.
Substitutes
49. Amaral M. 40. Chernysh D. 1. Dolgyi V. (G) 79. Khmelovskyy D. 77. Kremchanin D. 9. Myshnyov D. 97. Prokopenko N. 67. Rodrigues M. 71. Shostak D. 11. Shulyanskyi A. 24. Touati H.	28. Budkivsky P. 4. Eskinja G. 5. Janjic A. 31. Kosivskyi V. (G) 22. Micin P. 44. Perduta I. 6. Popara D. 9. Slesar A. 12. Turbayevskyi M. (G) 47. Vantukh R.
Coaches
Sharan V.	Skrypnyk V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Bah S. 🟨,
30', Skorko D. 🟨,
45', Juninho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Gorbach I. ↓, Budkivsky P. ↑,
46', Zadorozhnyi F. ↓, Slesar A. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Budkivsky P. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Butko B. ↓, Rodrigues M. ↑,
62', Castillo B. ↓, Kremchanin D. ↑,
66', Bah S. ↓, Micin P. ↑,
66', Jelavic D. ↓, Popara D. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Micin P. ⚽, Budkivsky P. (A),
77', 1 - 2, Cara T. ⚽, Kremchanin D. (A),
80', Basic J. ↓, Eskinja G. ↑,
81', Buletsa S. ↓, Myshnyov D. ↑,
85', Skorko D. 🟨,
85', Vashchenko D. ↓, Shostak D. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Persha Liga and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oleksandriya won 2.

Oleksandriya has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Zorya has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Oleksandriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Zorya could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oleksandriya won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Oleksandriya won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	FK Zorya Luhansk	7	2	2	3	7:11	-4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PFC Oleksandriya
Ukrainian Premier League
08.05.26	Polissya Zhytomyr - Oleksandriya	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Oleksandriya - Kolos Kovalivka	0:3 ✺
27.04.26	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi - Oleksandriya	1:1 ✺
20.04.26	Oleksandriya - Veres Rivne	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Karpaty Lviv - Oleksandriya	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Zorya Luhansk
Ukrainian Premier League
09.05.26	Zorya Luhansk - Kharkiv	1:1 ✺
04.05.26	Rukh Lviv - Zorya Luhansk	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Zorya Luhansk - Veres Rivne	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Zorya Luhansk - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Dynamo Kyiv - Zorya Luhansk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Premier League
24.11.25	Zorya Luhansk - Oleksandriya	2:2
23.02.25	Oleksandriya - Zorya Luhansk	2:1
17.08.24	Zorya Luhansk - Oleksandriya	1:2
03.03.24	Oleksandriya - Zorya Luhansk	0:0
18.08.23	Zorya Luhansk - Oleksandriya	0:0
28.05.23	Oleksandriya - Zorya Luhansk	0:2
18.11.22	Zorya Luhansk - Oleksandriya	4:1

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