Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Oliveirense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.10	2.20
	2.70	3.05	2.38
	3.30	3.13	2.31
	3.13	3.1	2.34	Watch
	3.25	3.05	2.20
	3.03	3.40	2.25
	3.00	3.05	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.5)	3.13 ↑ (3.05)	2.26 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
30.1%

Draw
29.4%

Mafra
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oliveirense's form might have worsened.

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mafra's recent form is better than expected.

Oliveirense - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Perez U. (G) 55. Bastos L. 14. Martins S. 24. Loureiro G. 13. Santos V. 6. Daniel J. 70. Kiko Felix 8. Braga V. 10. Joao Tavares 7. Rodriguez Y. 22. Rei R.	33. Silva P. (G) 22. Xico 2. Camara M. 3. Alves K. 5. Cardoso G. 66. Ferreira J. 7. Matos R. 11. Leandro Alves 37. Ba A. 46. Sambu B. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
1. Dabo R. (G) 95. Fonseca T. 16. Goncalves R. P. 4. Joao Felix 23. Johny 9. Marques R. 11. Matsunaga S. 27. Monteiro M. 17. Nagata K. 80. Onohara K. 78. Sancho D. 3. Silva G.	20. Deme A. 21. Fati E. 18. Goba Zakpa 1. Lemos F. (G) 90. Moreira R. 8. Neves L. 42. Ngom A. 13. Raposo C. 76. Teixeira L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Kiko Felix ⚽, Rodriguez Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 0, Daniel J. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Ferreira J. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
57', Leandro Alves ↓, Ngom A. ↑,
64', Joao Tavares ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
67', Matos R. ↓, Neves L. ↑,
67', Camara M. ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Sambu B. ⚽,
74', Rei R. ↓, Johny ↑,
74', Kiko Felix ↓, Onohara K. ↑,
81', Cardoso G. ↓, Deme A. ↑,
90', Daniel J. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
90', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Sancho D. ↑,
90+3', Ngom A. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 1.

Mafra's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Oliveirense won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.5:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Mafra - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.01%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 3
06.09.26	Atlético CP - Oliveirense	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Oliveirense - Penalva do Castelo	4:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.08.26	União de Santarém - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
17.05.26	Oliveirense - Felgueiras	1:5 ✺
09.05.26	Feirense - Oliveirense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTLW
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
05.09.26	Mafra - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Atlético da Malveira - Mafra	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.26	Lusitano GC - Mafra	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Mafra - Sintrense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.25	Mafra - Oliveirense	0:0
17.08.24	Oliveirense - Mafra	0:0
27.04.24	Mafra - Oliveirense	3:3
17.12.23	Oliveirense - Mafra	1:3
29.01.23	Mafra - Oliveirense	2:3
06.08.22	Oliveirense - Mafra	3:1
18.04.21	Oliveirense - Mafra	0:0

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