Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Carlos Osorio (Oliveira de Azemeis)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Oliveirense		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.75
	2.42	3.15	2.88
	2.47	3.33	3
	1.55	4.04	5.71	Watch
	2.42	3.15	2.92	Watch
	2.32	3.25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.4)	3.3 ↓ (3.34)	3.25 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oliveirense
41.9%

Draw
28.8%

Paços de Ferreira
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.2%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oliveirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Oliveirense will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Oliveirense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ribeiro R. (G) 13. Santos V. 4. Bura (C) 75. Namora N. 21. Silva J. 14. Pereira D. 99. Sabino 19. Lopes A. 7. Joao Adriano 9. Martelo P. 10. Bruno Silva	28. Marafona (G) 21. Anilson 2. Cardoso G. (C) 77. Rafael 15. Dias L. 13. Pinto J. 26. Cunha N. 33. Fernandinho 90. Lumungo R. 7. Diego Fernandes 30. Costinha
Substitutes
16. Diallo A. 6. Dioh I. 40. Greis N. (G) 23. Gustavao 11. Joanderson 22. Keating T. 17. Lucas Henrique 8. Ondoa F. 25. Takahashi T.	3. Diegao 23. Ferreira T. 19. Gomes F. 6. Joao Caiado 10. Matheus Martins 22. Mota 1. Rafa (G) 5. Sousa A. 9. Victor J.
Coaches
Pinto J.	Candido F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Bruno Silva ⚽, Silva J. (A),
6', Costinha 🟨,
16', Fernandinho 🟨,
32', Silva J. 🟨,
37', Diego Fernandes ↓, Victor J. ↑,
43', Pereira D. 🟨,
45', Rafael 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Fernandinho ↓, Gomes F. ↑,
46', Cunha N. ↓, Joao Caiado ↑,
61', Cardoso G. 🟨,
65', Pinto J. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Victor J. ⚽,
68', Cardoso G. ↓, Ferreira T. ↑,
70', Joao Adriano ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
71', Bura 🟨,
74', Diallo A. 🟨,
76', Pinto J. 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Martelo P. ⚽,
81', Anilson 🟨,
85', Martelo P. ↓, Ondoa F. ↑,
87', Costinha ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Joao Caiado ⚽,
90+7', Bruno Silva ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
90+7', Pereira D. ↓, Gustavao ↑,
90+7', Silva J. ↓, Dioh I. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Paços de Ferreira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:17. (average 0.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Oliveirense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:14. (average 0.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Oliveirense
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Desportivo Monção - Oliveirense	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.25	Oliveirense - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	Vizela - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Oliveirense - Sporting Lisbon B	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Penafiel - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTLWT
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
29.09.25	Paços de Ferreira - Porto B	2:2 ✺
14.09.25	Torreense - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Académico de Viseu - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
03.03.25	Paços de Ferreira - Oliveirense	0:1
05.10.24	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:2
Club Friendly
10.07.24	Paços de Ferreira - Oliveirense	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
29.03.24	Paços de Ferreira - Oliveirense	2:0
11.11.23	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:0
Club Friendly
09.07.22	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
Taça de Portugal
22.11.20	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:4

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