Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Operário Ferroviario		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.50	2.85	3.00	Watch
	2.55	2.90	2.80
	2.45	3.05	2.95	Watch
	2.68	2.97	3.09
	2.56	2.92	3.01
	2.65	2.90	3.00
	2.55	2.90	3.00	Watch
	2.55	2.95	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.35)	2.93 ↓ (3.15)	2.97 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
36.5%

Draw
31.9%

Grêmio Novorizontino
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29.6%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.3%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Operário PR will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Vagner (G) 2. Mikael Doka 44. Klaus 16. Miranda 27. Gabriel Feliciano 10. Boschilia (C) 39. Matheus Trindade 20. Vinicius Diniz 14. Pereira H. 92. Pablo 88. Neto Paraiba	93. Jordi (G) 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
18. Andre 11. Aylon 99. Caio Dantas 32. Charles Raphael 1. Elias Curzel (G) 7. Felipe Augusto 5. Indio 23. Joao Gabriel 26. Maguinho 30. Pedro Vilhena 34. Renan Gustavo 9. Vinicius Mingotti	9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 24. Lora J. 17. Matheus Bianqui 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos 15. Tavinho
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Boschilia ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Robson ⚽, Romulo (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Reidiney 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Boschilia ⚽,
65', Reidiney ↓, Tavinho ↑,
65', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
67', Pablo 🟨,
72', Neto Paraiba ↓, Felipe Augusto ↑,
75', Pereira H. ↓, Aylon ↑,
78', Boschilia 🟨,
78', Luis Oyama ↓, Carlao ↑,
78', Leo Naldi ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
81', Pablo ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
82', Vinicius Diniz ↓, Indio ↑,
87', Romulo ↓, Ronald Barcellos ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 2.

Operário PR is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Novorizontino is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Operário PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Operário PR: Cuenu J. (Red Card) Zuluaga J. (Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Carlinhos (Inactive) Dantas (Inactive) Juninho (Yellow Cards) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Matheus Bianqui (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Operário PR: Aylon (Inactive) Brenno Pereira (Knee Injury) Pool J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Lora J. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Operário PR won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	44:43	1	48

Last Results with these Odds

Operário Ferroviario - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.74%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
07.07.26	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Goiás - Operário Ferroviario	0:3 ✺
14.06.26	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
05.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - Juventude	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWLW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
04.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
10.06.26	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Operário Ferroviario	3:0
23.06.25	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0
09.11.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Operário Ferroviario	0:1
23.07.24	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
06.11.22	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3
20.07.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Operário Ferroviario	2:1

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