Match Info

Paranaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, TV Record


	Operário Ferroviario		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.8	3
	2.42	2.98	3
	2.44	2.92	3.03
	2.39	3	3.14
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.41	2.81	3.02	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (3.8)	2.87 ↓ (3.2)	3.03 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
38.1%

Draw
31.8%

Coritiba
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

28.4%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

28.1%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Operário Ferroviario's performance.

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Operário Ferroviario that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+18.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Vagner (G) 11. Aylon 10. Boschilia 22. Cuenu J. 5. Indio 99. Leo Gaucho 2. Mikael Doka 6. Moraes 18. Pool J. 29. Torres E. 20. Vinicius Diniz	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 26. Bruno Melo 55. Jacy 10. Josue 7. Lavega J. 11. Lucas Ronier 32. Pedro Rocha 23. Tiago Coser 2. Tinga 36. Vini Paulista 8. Wallisson
Substitutes
4. Andre 3. Charles Raphael 28. Dudu Mosconi 1. Elias Curzel (G) 27. Gabriel Feliciano 23. Joao Gabriel 39. Matheus Trindade 16. Miranda 88. Neto Paraiba 30. Pedro Vilhena 14. Pereira H. 8. Zuluaga J.	77. Breno Lopes 14. Enzo Vagner 28. Fabinho 22. Felipe Guimaraes 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 16. Joao Almeida 20. Keno 3. Maicon 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 21. Thiago Santos 29. Willian Oliveira
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Pedro Rocha ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 2, Pedro Rocha ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Torres E. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
46', Wallisson ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
59', Lucas Ronier ↓, Fabinho ↑,
61', Pereira H. 🟨,
69', 1 - 2, Boschilia (Penalty Awarded),
69', Moraes ↓, Gabriel Feliciano ↑,
69', Pool J. ↓, Neto Paraiba ↑,
70', Pedro Rocha ↓, Keno ↑,
76', Josue ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
76', Bruno Melo ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Gabriel Feliciano ⚽,
84', Vinicius Diniz ↓, Matheus Trindade ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Coritiba may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Operário PR has had a series of home games.

Recently, Coritiba has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Operário PR won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Coritiba - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 47.76%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.02.26	Azuriz - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Operário Ferroviario - Azuriz	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Operário Ferroviario - Foz do Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Operário Ferroviario - FC Cascavel	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	São-Joseense - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTWL
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.02.26	Coritiba - Cianorte	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
31.01.26	Cianorte - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
29.08.25	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	1:0
26.04.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
11.02.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	2:1
27.05.24	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
28.01.24	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	4:0
26.02.23	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	3:0

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