Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cruzeiro		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.39	4.25	8.3	Watch
	1.41	4.49	9.82
	1.33	4.70	10.19	Watch
	1.36	4	8.5
	1.43	4.33	8.95	Watch
	1.41	4.2	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.48)	4.33 ↑ (3.98)	9.11 ↑ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
67.9%

Draw
21.7%

Coritiba
10.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

23.2%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

23.2%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cruzeiro's performance.

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cruzeiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Cruzeiro - Coritiba Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cruzeiro will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 12. William 43. Joao Marcelo 15. Fabricio Bruno 6. Kaiki 11. Gerson 29. Romero L. (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 99. Arroyo K. 19. Kaio Jorge	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 2. Tinga 3. Maicon 23. Tiago Coser 26. Bruno Melo 11. Lucas Ronier 19. Gomez S. (C) 29. Willian Oliveira 7. Lavega J. 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
23. Fagner 33. Janderson 77. Japa 2. Kaua Moraes 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 8. Matheus Henrique 81. Otavio Costa (G) 25. Villalba L. 22. Villarreal N. 94. Wanderson	18. Brayan Gravelo 14. Enzo Vagner 28. Fabinho 22. Felipe Guimaraes 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 55. Jacy 16. Joao Almeida 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 21. Thiago Santos 20. Tissi 36. Vini Paulista
Coaches
Tite	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Matheus Pereira ⚽, Romero L. (A),
36', Pedro Rocha 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Lavega J. ⚽, Bruno Melo (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gomez S. ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
46', Arroyo K. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Breno Lopes ⚽,
56', Kaiki 🟨,
59', William ↓, Fagner ↑,
59', Romero L. ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
67', Fabricio Bruno 🟨,
68', Breno Lopes ↓, Keno ↑,
73', Tiago Coser ↓, Jacy ↑,
73', Lavega J. ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
79', Gerson ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
83', Kaiki ↓, Kaua Prates ↑,
88', Maicon ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
88', Jacy 🟨,
90+7', Matheus Pereira 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Coritiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruzeiro is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Matheus Cunha (Inactive) Sinisterra L. (Injury)

There will not play in Coritiba: Josue (Red Card) Lucas Crepaldi (Inactive) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Chico (Injury) Villalba L. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.5:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.02.26	Betim - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Cruzeiro - Democrata GV	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Cruzeiro - Uberlândia	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLW
- Coritiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
31.01.26	Cianorte - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
24.01.26	FC Cascavel - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Coritiba - São-Joseense	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.11.23	Coritiba - Cruzeiro	1:0
16.07.23	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
08.10.21	Coritiba - Cruzeiro	0:3
06.07.21	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.17	Coritiba - Cruzeiro	1:0
25.06.17	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	2:0
14.08.16	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	2:2

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