Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó) 🌤️ ...

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	19:00	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	17:00	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	16:00	Fanatiz
Usa	17:00	Fanatiz


	Chapecoense		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.78	3.05	2.62	Watch
	2.81	3.24	2.76
	2.79	3.15	2.69	Watch
	2.63	3	2.63
	2.66	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.83	3.1	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.48)	3.14 ↑ (3.01)	2.7 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
34.6%

Draw
30.2%

Coritiba
35.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.3%

30.7%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

29.3%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Chapecoense - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Chapecoense (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Chapecoense (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 50%). Coritiba (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 25. Victor Caetano 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 99. Rafael Carvalheira 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 20. Jean Carlos 31. Mauricio Garcez 7. Marcinho	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 2. Tinga 3. Maicon (C) 23. Tiago Coser 26. Bruno Melo 29. Willian Oliveira 10. Josue 7. Lavega J. 11. Lucas Ronier 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 22. Higor Meritao 77. Italo 5. Joao Vitor 34. Kaina (G) 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 2. Marcos Vinicius 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi	14. Enzo Vagner 28. Fabinho 22. Felipe Guimaraes 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 55. Jacy 16. Joao Almeida 20. Keno 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 21. Thiago Santos 36. Vini Paulista 8. Wallisson
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Lucas Ronier (A),
45', 1 - 1, Clar W. ⚽, Everton (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Camilo Reijers ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
55', Lavega J. ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
55', Maicon ↓, Jacy ↑,
57', 1 - 2, Breno Lopes ⚽,
59', 1 - 3, Pedro Rocha ⚽, Lucas Ronier (A),
61', Everton 🟨,
69', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
69', Everton ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
69', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
71', 2 - 3, Eduardo Doma ⚽, Jean Carlos (A),
73', Willian Oliveira ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
73', Pedro Rocha ↓, Enzo Vagner ↑,
80', Tiago Coser 🟨,
83', Lucas Ronier ↓, Keno ↑,
84', Higor Meritao 🟨,
87', Jean Carlos ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 3, Rubens Ricoldi ⚽, Clar W. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Mancha (Knee Injury) Neto Pessoa (Inactive) Rafael Thyere (Inactive) Robert Conceicao (Inactive)

There will not play in Coritiba: Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Breno Lopes (Injury) Lucas Crepaldi (Inactive) Maicon (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38:49	-11	39
20	Chapecoense-SC	30	3	9	18	30:62	-32	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 TTWWW
- Coritiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.02.26	Coritiba - Cianorte	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
31.01.26	Cianorte - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
24.01.26	FC Cascavel - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.08.25	Coritiba - Chapecoense	0:0
12.04.25	Chapecoense - Coritiba	1:2
17.11.24	Chapecoense - Coritiba	2:1
27.07.24	Coritiba - Chapecoense	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.17	Chapecoense - Coritiba	2:1
06.08.17	Coritiba - Chapecoense	2:0
11.09.16	Chapecoense - Coritiba	1:0

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