Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 15

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema (Lisbon)


	Oriental		Moncarapachense

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.92	3.1
	2.29	3.01	3.09	Watch
	2.25	2.63	3.25
	2.34	2.91	3.23
	2.3	2.83	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.07)	2.86 ↓ (3.13)	3.15 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oriental
39.6%

Draw
31.7%

Moncarapachense
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.8%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.4%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriental has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Moncarapachense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriental than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Oriental - Moncarapachense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 9 and 11 in the zone Relegation)

Oriental is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Moncarapachense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Oriental has had a series of away games.

Oriental is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Oriental won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Oriental won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Clube Oriental Lisboa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Oriental	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Serpa - Oriental	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Oriental - Alcochetense	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Lagoa - Oriental	6:3 ✺
29.11.25	Alverca B - Oriental	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLLL
- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alverca B	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Moncarapachense - Elvas	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Juventude de Évora - Moncarapachense	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Moncarapachense - Louletano	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sintrense - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.08.25	Moncarapachense - Oriental	0:0
07.01.24	Moncarapachense - Oriental	5:1
20.08.23	Oriental - Moncarapachense	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.01.18	Oriental - Moncarapachense	2:1

Oriental - Moncarapachense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide