Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 13

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião (Serpa)


	Serpa		Oriental

	1	X	2
	2	2.95	3.5
	2.05	2.98	3.45
	2.02	3.15	3.58	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.4
	2.02	3.42	3.42
	1.96	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (2.02)	3.08 ↑ (3.06)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serpa
44.8%

Draw
29.3%

Oriental
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

24.9%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serpa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Oriental has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Serpa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriental than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Serpa - Oriental Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 🟥,
41', 1 - 1, Rocha P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
85', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 8).

Serpa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Oriental's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Serpa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Serpa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Serpa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.12.25	Alverca B - Serpa	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Serpa - Elvas	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Juventude de Évora - Serpa	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Serpa - Louletano	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sintrense - Serpa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWTT
- Clube Oriental Lisboa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.12.25	Oriental - Alcochetense	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Lagoa - Oriental	6:3 ✺
29.11.25	Alverca B - Oriental	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Oriental - Elvas	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Juventude de Évora - Oriental	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.01.24	Oriental - Serpa	0:3
27.08.23	Serpa - Oriental	0:1

Serpa - Oriental: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide