Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 10 June 2023, Saturday

Location: Exploria Stadium (Orlando)

Referee: Mendoza R. (Usa)


	Orlando City		Colorado Rapids

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.7	3.9	4.6
	1.75	4.01	4.76
	1.67	3.5	4.2
	1.73	3.85	4.55	Watch
	1.72	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.25)	3.79 ↑ (3.43)	4.58 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orlando City
54.7%

Draw
24.8%

Colorado Rapids
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.4%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

26.7%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orlando City's performance.

Colorado Rapids has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colorado Rapids might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orlando City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colorado Rapids than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colorado Rapids could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.1%	3.4%	3.4%

Orlando City - Colorado Rapids Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Orlando City will win (votes: 27 - 93.1%). Colorado will win (votes: 1 - 3.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Orlando City: 83.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gallese P. (G) 24. Smith K. 25. Carlos Antonio 6. Jansson R. 3. Rafael Santos 5. Araujo C. 16. Cartagena W. 17. Torres F. 10. Pereyra M. (C) 77. Angulo I. 9. Kara E.	1. Ilic M. (G) 6. Abubakar L. 5. Maxso A. (C) 4. Wilson D. 2. Rosenberry K. 20. Ronan C. 21. Acosta B. 29. Galvan B. A. 23. Bassett C. 91. Cabral K. 7. Lewis J.
Substitutes
7. Enrique R. 8. Felipe Martins 59. Granados A. 26. Halliday M. 13. McGuire D. 11. Ojeda M. 15. Schlegel R. 31. Stajduhar M. (G) 23. Thorhallsson D. D.	12. Barrios M. 33. Beitashour S. 34. Edwards M. 14. Harris C. 15. Leyva D. 31. Markanich A. 97. Priso-Mbongue R. 77. Yapi D. 22. Yarbrough W. (G)
Coaches
Pareja O.	Fraser R.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 13).

Orlando City has the most likely position - 5 (11.19%), project points - 50, currently - 23, a good chance of playoffs (77%), a very small chance of supporters shield (1%), a very small chance of win league (3%).

Colorado has the most likely position - 14 (37.17%), project points - 34, currently - 13, a small chance of playoffs (15%), a very small chance of supporters shield (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 38, small importance 19, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Orlando City won 3.

Orlando City is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Colorado has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Colorado could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Colorado have a series of home games.

In this match Orlando City is a favorite.

There will not play in Orlando City: Gonzalez G. (Injury) Petrasso L. (Injury)

There will not play in Colorado: Bombito M. (Red Card) Max (Injury) Price J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodriguez A. (Injury) Rubio D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Orlando City: Salim A. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Orlando City won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Orlando City won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orlando City
MLS
03.06.23	New York Red Bulls - Orlando City	0:3 ✺
27.05.23	Orlando City - Atlanta United	1:1 ✺
20.05.23	Inter Miami - Orlando City	1:3 ✺
17.05.23	Orlando City - New York City	1:1 ✺
13.05.23	Columbus Crew - Orlando City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WTWTT
- Colorado Rapids
MLS
03.06.23	Colorado Rapids - San Jose Earthquakes	0:0 ✺
31.05.23	Columbus Crew - Colorado Rapids	3:2 ✺
27.05.23	Colorado Rapids - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
24.05.23	Colorado Rapids - Real Salt Lake	0:1 ✺
MLS
20.05.23	Colorado Rapids - Real Salt Lake	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
13.07.22	Colorado Rapids - Orlando City	1:1
07.03.20	Colorado Rapids - Orlando City	2:1
06.04.19	Orlando City - Colorado Rapids	4:3
29.04.18	Colorado Rapids - Orlando City	1:2
29.04.17	Orlando City - Colorado Rapids	2:0
20.08.16	Colorado Rapids - Orlando City	0:0
24.06.15	Orlando City - Colorado Rapids	2:0

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