Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 32

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday


	Pärnu Vaprus U21		Tabasalu

	1	X	2
	1.15	8.25	9.50
	1.25	6.10	6.75
	1.14	8.35	9.60
	1.27	6.80	6.20	Watch
	1.11	8.25	9.25
	1.18	8.46	8.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.38)	7.7 ↑ (5)	8.29 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus U21
77.1%

Draw
11.9%

Tabasalu
11%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

17.9%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

17.2%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pärnu Vaprus U21's performance.

Tabasalu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tabasalu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pärnu Vaprus U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tabasalu than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tabasalu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Allas J. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Smirnov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 2 - 1, Altmets K. ⚽,

Preview

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tabasalu has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Pärnu Vaprus U21 has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Pärnu Vaprus U21 has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:3 (averaging 5.3:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pärnu Vaprus U21 against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 6:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	32	15	5	12	98:64	34	50
8	Tabasalu	32	10	3	19	46:85	-39	33

Last Results with these Odds

Tabasalu - the odds 5.2 are the expected chance of winning is 17.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
11.10.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna JK Legion	12:0 ✺
13.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tartu Kalev	0:4 ✺
10.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWLLW
- JK Tabasalu
Estonian Esiliiga B
11.10.26	Tabasalu - Tammeka U21	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tabasalu	3:2 ✺
14.09.26	Tabasalu - Tallinna JK Legion	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tabasalu	4:1 ✺
05.09.26	Tabasalu - Tammeka U21	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
24.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tabasalu	6:0
05.07.26	Tabasalu - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:8
11.04.26	Tabasalu - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:2

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