Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 28

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday


	Pärnu Vaprus U21		Jõhvi Phoenix

	1	X	2
	2.10	4.10	2.45
	1.58	4.5	3.65
	1.51	5.17	4.29
	1.73	4.82	3.27	Watch
	1.44	5.1	4.2
	1.53	5.15	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.43)	4.81 ↑ (4)	3.7 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus U21
55.9%

Draw
19.2%

Jõhvi Phoenix
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

22.4%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

22.4%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pärnu Vaprus U21's performance.

Jõhvi Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jõhvi Phoenix might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (-19%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pärnu Vaprus U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jõhvi Phoenix than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jõhvi Phoenix could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Enok J. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Kutsar K. ⚽,
43', 1 - 2, Savenkov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 2 - 2, ⚽,
69', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Pärnu Vaprus U21 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Jõhvi Phoenix has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Jõhvi Phoenix has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus U21 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 2.7:3).

Including home match between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus U21 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71:68	3	54
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	95:62	33	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0 ✺
30.08.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:5 ✺
24.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tabasalu	6:0 ✺
20.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Viljandi Tulevik	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWTL
- Jõhvi FC Phoenix
Estonian Esiliiga B
06.09.26	Levadia U19 - Jõhvi Phoenix	6:2 ✺
29.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Tammeka U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:3 ✺
20.08.26	Tabasalu - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Narva Trans U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
12.07.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Pärnu Vaprus U21	4:2
25.05.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Pärnu Vaprus U21	4:3
03.04.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	3:1

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