Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 - Round 17

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Palencia CA		Colegios Diocesanos

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.6	5.9
	1.61	3.62	5.43	Watch
	1.5	3.4	6.5
	1.47	3.66	6.74
	1.5	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.69)	3.61 ↑ (3.55)	6.11 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palencia CA
59.9%

Draw
25.2%

Colegios Diocesanos
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.7%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

23.5%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palencia CA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palencia CA's performance.

Colegios Diocesanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colegios Diocesanos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palencia CA than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palencia CA that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colegios Diocesanos than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colegios Diocesanos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Palencia CA - Colegios Diocesanos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
67', 2 - 0, ⚽,
75', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 8 (Play Offs: ) and 10).

Palencia CA has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Colegios Diocesanos is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Colegios Diocesanos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palencia CA is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Palencia CA won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Palencia CA won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Palencia CA	5	3	1	1	6:3	3	10
18	Colegios Diocesanos	5	0	1	4	1:10	-9	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palencia CA
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
03.01.26	Unionistas B - Palencia CA	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Palencia CA - Guijuelo	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Leonesa B - Palencia CA	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Palencia CA - Mojados	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Almazán - Palencia CA	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLWT
- CD Colegios Diocesanos
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
04.01.26	Colegios Diocesanos - Villaralbo	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Mirandés B - Colegios Diocesanos	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Unionistas B - Colegios Diocesanos	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Colegios Diocesanos - Guijuelo	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Colegios Diocesanos - Mojados	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
24.02.24	Colegios Diocesanos - Palencia CA	1:1
07.10.23	Palencia CA - Colegios Diocesanos	0:0

Palencia CA - Colegios Diocesanos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide