Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Portelli D. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Malta	15:30	TVM Sport+


	Paola Hibernians		Birżebbuġa St. Peters

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.75	4.10
	1.66	3.75	3.75
	1.66	4.12	4.52
	1.87	3.94	3.36	Watch
	1.61	4.10	4.10
	1.70	4.12	4.01
	1.65	3.95	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.06)	3.96 ↑ (3.48)	4.01 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Paola Hibernians
54.2%

Draw
23%

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
22.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.2%

26.1%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

23.9%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paola Hibernians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paola Hibernians's performance.

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birżebbuġa St. Peters might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paola Hibernians than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paola Hibernians that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birżebbuġa St. Peters could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Paola Hibernians - Birżebbuġa St. Peters Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Cardinali M. (G) 4. Alfred S. 47. El Fanis M. 23. Ellul M. 24. Lacunza L. 7. Mbong J. 3. Romling M. 5. Shaw K. (C) 34. Sobczyk A. 8. Wahling J. 14. Xuereb D.	1. Chiesa M. (G) 4. Azzopardi M. 5. Cassar Z. (C) 20. Costa Goncalves G. 2. Gustavo Felipe 98. Mendoza J. 30. Riascos L. 88. Scerri Z. 18. Thellufsen R. 15. Tokic S. 10. Yuri
Substitutes
19. Abela L. 21. Agius 17. Chukunyere I. 10. Degabriele J. 77. Druga B. 44. Flavell B. 88. Khevin Fraga 18. Matos 28. Roe J. 1. Sanchez P. (G) 16. Zammit A.	14. Azimzadeh Tabrizi S. 22. Azzopardi J. (G) 77. Barbara A. 21. Bondin K. 26. Coppola A. 23. Galea F. 19. Grioli E. 11. Tomaselli P. 28. Vella L. 17. Walker J. 8. Xuereb M.
Coaches
Tanrivermis T.	Santana L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Costa Goncalves G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wahling J. ↓, Roe J. ↑,
55', 🟨,
58', Mendoza J. 🟨,
60', Sobczyk A. ↓, Druga B. ↑,
68', Chiesa M. 🟨,
69', 1 - 0, El Fanis M. (Penalty Awarded),
73', El Fanis M. ↓, Khevin Fraga ↑,
76', Bondin K. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,
84', Cassar Z. 🟨,
85', Riascos L. ↓, Tomaselli P. ↑,
85', Thellufsen R. ↓, Grioli E. ↑,
88', Xuereb D. ↓, Abela L. ↑,
90+6', Cardinali M. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 10th in the Premier League (First stage - Play Out: ) and 12th in the Premier League (First stage - Play Out: )).

Recent results have been tough for Hibernians (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Birżebbuġa has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Birżebbuġa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Hibernians holding a narrow advantage.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Hibernians	10	3	4	3	11:14	-3	13
12	Birzebbuga ✔	10	1	2	7	7:19	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paola Hibernians
Maltese Premier League
11.10.26	Hamrun Spartans - Paola Hibernians	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Paola Hibernians - Floriana	0:4 ✺
12.09.26	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	Paola Hibernians - Valletta	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Paola Hibernians - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLTLT
- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Premier League
09.10.26	Mosta - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Valletta	0:3 ✺
11.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Hamrun Spartans	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Sliema Wanderers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Paola Hibernians - Birżebbuġa St. Peters