Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group - Round 2

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday


	Paredes		Leça

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.4
	2.1	3	3.45
	2.15	3.01	3.32
	2.14	3	3.35
	2.1	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.3)	2.99 ↓ (3.2)	3.39 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paredes
43%

Draw
30.3%

Leça
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.5%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

28.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paredes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Leça has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leça might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leça than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Paredes - Leça Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
44', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 1.

Paredes is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leça is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paredes won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USC Paredes
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
27.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	3:3 ✺
13.04.25	Paredes - Atlético dos Arcos	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Tirsense - Paredes	2:4 ✺
30.03.25	Paredes - Pevidem	4:0 ✺
16.03.25	Vianense - Paredes	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TTWWW
- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
27.04.25	Leça - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
13.04.25	Machico - Leça	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Leça - Guarda FC	6:2 ✺
30.03.25	Salgueiros 08 - Leça	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Leça - União Lamas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
01.05.22	Leça - Paredes	1:0
20.03.22	Paredes - Leça	1:0
Taça de Portugal
22.12.21	Leça - Paredes	2:1 penalties
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.01.21	Leça - Paredes	0:0
04.10.20	Paredes - Leça	0:1
17.11.19	Paredes - Leça	2:2
06.01.19	Leça - Paredes	2:0

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