Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 25

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday


	Leça		Guarda FC

	1	X	2
	1.51	4	5
	1.25	4.6	12
	1.3	4.55	9.05
	1.25	4.6	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.48)	4.44 ↑ (4.05)	9.51 ↑ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leça
69.5%

Draw
20.8%

Guarda FC
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

22.5%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

21.3%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leça has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leça's performance.

Guarda FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarda FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leça than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarda FC than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarda FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leça - Guarda FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, ⚽,
37', 2 - 1, ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
52', 3 - 2, ⚽,
60', 4 - 2, ⚽,
73', 5 - 2, ⚽,
90', 6 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 10 in the zone Relegation).

Leça in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Guarda is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leça could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Leça is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Leça to win the game is with odds 1.48.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Leça won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
30.03.25	Salgueiros 08 - Leça	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Leça - União Lamas	4:2 ✺
09.03.25	Gondomar - Leça	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Leça - Marítimo B	3:1 ✺
23.02.25	Cinfães - Leça	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWW
- Guarda FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
29.03.25	Guarda FC - Beira-Mar	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Machico - Guarda FC	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Guarda FC - Alpendorada	0:1 ✺
03.03.25	Guarda FC - Salgueiros 08	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	União Lamas - Guarda FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
15.12.24	Guarda FC - Leça	0:0

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