Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 28

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Peña Deportiva		Formentera

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.3	4.05
	1.79	3.32	4.46
	1.79	3.34	4.38
	1.8	3	4.5
	1.73	3.25	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.78)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	4.41 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Deportiva
51.2%

Draw
28.1%

Formentera
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

28.4%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

31.1%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

The chances for Formentera have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Deportiva than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Formentera than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Peña Deportiva - Formentera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
82', 0 - 1, Gorriz A. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 11 (Play Offs: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peña Deportiva won 3.

Recent performances by Peña Deportiva have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Formentera is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Peña Deportiva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Peña Deportiva is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Peña Deportiva won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peña Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Formentera	5	2	2	1	7:4	3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
22.03.26	Inter Ibiza - Peña Deportiva	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Peña Deportiva - Llosetense	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Cardassar - Peña Deportiva	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Peña Deportiva - Constancia	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Peña Deportiva - Manacor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWWT
- SD Formentera
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
22.03.26	Formentera - Portmany	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Rotlet Molinar - Formentera	0:5 ✺
08.03.26	Formentera - Collerense	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Platges de Calvià - Formentera	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Santanyí - Formentera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
16.11.25	Formentera - Peña Deportiva	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
03.03.24	Peña Deportiva - Formentera	0:1
22.10.23	Formentera - Peña Deportiva	1:2
22.01.23	Formentera - Peña Deportiva	0:1
04.09.22	Peña Deportiva - Formentera	0:0
15.05.22	Formentera - Peña Deportiva	3:0
09.01.22	Peña Deportiva - Formentera	0:3

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