Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Guerra E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Albion Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.4	3.7	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.10	6.50
	1.38	4.15	7.2
	1.4	4.68	9.1
	1.42	4.4	7.53	Watch
	1.39	4.55	8
	1.44	3.98	8.07	Watch
	1.4	4.3	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.6)	4.23 ↑ (3.74)	7.66 ↑ (5.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
65.9%

Draw
21.9%

Albion Montevideo
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

25%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

24.2%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.

Albion Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Albion Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Pezzella G. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 7. Cabrera J. 8. Fernandez N. 5. Remedi E. 13. Darias E. 32. Umpierrez L. 11. Jaime C. 19. Arezo M.	1. Jaume S. (G) 15. Alcoba P. 2. Couture F. 80. Llana B. 16. Alvarez J. 5. Ginella F. (C) 27. Costa S. 11. Toledo H. 8. Neira N. 10. Airala C. 9. Lopez A.
Substitutes
28. Alegre I. 36. Barboza B. 1. Britos S. (G) 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 80. Gonzalez F. 99. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 16. Olase T. 15. Olivera M. 4. Romero F.	18. Acosta B. 30. Barcia B. 24. de los Santos M. 32. Figueroa T. 13. Lacoste P. 6. Moschion T. 29. Puente F. 31. Silva S. (G) 22. Vera A. 7. Zufiaurre I.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Nieves F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Jaime C. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Ferreira L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Arezo M. 🟨,
61', 3 - 0, Fernandez N. ⚽,
65', Llana B. 🟨,
66', Airala C. ↓, Vera A. ↑,
66', Neira N. ↓, Moschion T. ↑,
68', Cabrera J. ↓, Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↑,
68', Pezzella G. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
74', Aguerre W. 🟨,
74', 3 - 1, Lopez A. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Arezo M. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
75', Darias E. ↓, Alegre I. ↑,
76', Lopez A. ↓, Figueroa T. ↑,
76', Toledo H. ↓, Zufiaurre I. ↑,
79', Ferreira L. 🟨,
85', Jaime C. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 16).

Recent performances by Peñarol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Albion is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
16	Albion	9	1	0	8	9:18	-9	3

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.46%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.08.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLWT
- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.08.26	Racing Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
27.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.08.26	Albion Montevideo - Boston River	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
14.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
13.08.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	2:0
23.07.22	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3
19.02.22	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1

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