What is the expert prediction for Albion Montevideo vs Progreso?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Albion Montevideo vs Progreso. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Albion Montevideo vs Progreso Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, September 03, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Round 2

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Albion Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.00	3.10
	2.02	3.05	3.35
	2.29	3.15	3.28
	2.22	3.14	3.15	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.05
	2.25	3.40	3.03	Watch
	2.13	3.00	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.32)	3.11 ↓ (3.3)	3.16 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albion Montevideo
41.8%

Draw
29.3%

Progreso
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28.1%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

27.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albion Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

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Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Figueroa T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 1 - 1, Dos Santos J. ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Albion is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Progreso is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Progreso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Albion has had a series of away games.

Albion will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Albion won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home match between the teams, Albion won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

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Last Results with these Odds

Albion Montevideo - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.04%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Progreso - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.81%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.08.26	Racing Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
27.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.08.26	Albion Montevideo - Boston River	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Cerro - Albion Montevideo	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTLLL
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Progreso - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Central Español - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	1:2
07.03.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	2:2
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.11.23	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	3:2
22.07.23	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	3:0
22.04.23	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	1:0

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