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Current Win Probability
Peñarol de Montevideo 67.1%
Draw 20.3%
Progreso 12.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
67.6%
20.7%
11.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
71.2%
19.7%
11.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
0%
Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Preview
An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd and 10th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 5.
Peñarol has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Progreso has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Peñarol may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Peñarol has faced a series of away games on the road.
In this match, Peñarol enters as the overwhelming favorite.
In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Peñarol has recorded 13 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 34:13 (averaging 1.9:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Peñarol against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.7:0.7 per game).
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