Match Info
Copa Uruguay - Round 3Date: 16 September 2026, WednesdayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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 Uruguay | DirecTV Sports |
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Progreso |
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Nacional Montevideo |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
7.00 |
4.10 |
1.38 |
|
 |
7.00 |
4.35 |
1.35 |
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 |
9.92 |
4.69 |
1.33 |
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 |
9.36 |
4.45 |
1.32 |
 Watch |
 |
9.8 |
4.6 |
1.29 |
|
 |
8.74 |
4.48 |
1.37 |
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 |
8.2 |
4.5 |
1.29 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
8.57 ↑
(6.46) |
4.45 ↑
(3.55) |
1.33 ↓
(1.54) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Progreso
10.7% | Draw
20.6% | Nacional Montevideo
68.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.Progreso - Nacional Montevideo Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1 - Nacional (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 32', 0 - 1, Correa T. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1.In recent matches, Progreso has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Nacional is seen as the favorite.In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:32. (average 0.8:2).Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 0.9:2.4).
Last Results with these Odds
Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.8%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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