Match Info

Serie D - Round 7

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Alfredo Leahy (Penedo)


	Penedense		Jequié

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2
	2.95	3.1	2.28
	3.05	3.09	2.27
	2.67	3.08	2.57	Watch
	3.12	3.22	2.29
	2.95	3.1	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.2)	3.12 ↓ (3.15)	2.28 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penedense
30.3%

Draw
29.5%

Jequié
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

28.4%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

28.4%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penedense's form might have worsened.

Jequié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jequié's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penedense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jequié, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Penedense - Jequié Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Recife T. ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Rian Santana ⚽,
45+4', 1 - 2, Carioca ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 2 - 2, Nilton ⚽,
69', 2 - 3, Nael ⚽,
73', 2 - 4, Nael ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Penedense has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jequié has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Penedense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jequié is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
24.05.25	Juazeirense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Penedense - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Penedense - Lagarto	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	União Carmolandense - Penedense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLLT
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Serie D
25.05.25	Jequié - Lagarto	3:1 ✺
18.05.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Jequié - Juazeirense	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Jequié - União Carmolandense	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Jequié	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTLWL

Penedense - Jequié: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide