Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 8

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Grupo Desportivo Peniche (Peniche)


	Peniche		Os Marialvas

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.15	3.85
	1.93	3.26	3.73	Watch
	1.89	3.18	3.88
	2.2	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.22)	3.17 ↑ (3.1)	3.62 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peniche
46.2%

Draw
28.7%

Os Marialvas
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

26.8%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peniche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peniche's performance.

Os Marialvas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peniche that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Os Marialvas than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Os Marialvas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peniche - Os Marialvas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
75', 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 and 12 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Peniche has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marialvas is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Peniche is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Peniche won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
26.10.25	Naval - Peniche	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Peniche - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
28.09.25	Fatima - Peniche	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Peniche - 1 Dezembro	4:5 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	Peniche - Samora Correia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW
- CF Os Marialvas
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
26.10.25	Os Marialvas - Oliveira Hospital	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Marinhense - Os Marialvas	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Os Marialvas - SC Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Mortágua - Os Marialvas	1:0 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	União da Serra - Os Marialvas	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.03.25	Peniche - Os Marialvas	0:0
03.11.24	Os Marialvas - Peniche	2:0

Peniche - Os Marialvas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide