Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 6

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
World	Onefootball


	Perugia		Sambenedettese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	2.92	3.45
	1.99	3.15	3.87
	1.81	3.02	5.22	Watch
	2.21	2.83	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.99)	2.98 ↓ (3.14)	3.99 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
45.4%

Draw
31.3%

Sambenedettese
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

29.3%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

27.6%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Sambenedettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sambenedettese than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Perugia - Sambenedettese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Sambenedettese (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 32. Megelaitis L. 5. Angella G. 15. Dell'Orco C. 26. Calapai L. 6. Giunti G. 11. Bacchin L. 98. Giraudo F. 10. Matos 29. Ogunseye R. 7. Kanoute M.	1. Orsini T. (G) 15. Zoboletti A. 4. Zini A. 17. Pezzola L. 14. Tosi F. 37. Toure M. 8. Bongelli R. 18. Candellori K. 47. Konate A. 10. Sbaffo A. 23. Toure N.
Substitutes
21. Broh J. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 9. Montevago D. 12. Moro L. (G) 99. Nwanege K. 18. Perugini M. 17. Terrnava D. 20. Tumbarello G. 22. Vinti L. (G) 3. Yabre M.	24. Alfieri V. 11. Battista N. 5. Chelli M. 22. Cultraro G. (G) 9. Eusepi U. 12. Grillo M. (G) 77. Iaiunese C. 6. Lulli L. 7. Marranzino P. 20. Paolini S. 90. Scafetta F. 94. Tataranni F. 19. Vesprini R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Pezzola L. 🟨,
32', Zini A. 🟨,
36', Calapai L. 🟨,
44', Toure M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', Bacchin L. ↓, Joselito ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Sbaffo A. (Pen),
73', Megelaitis L. 🟨,
75', Bongelli R. ↓, Alfieri V. ↑,
75', Toure M. ↓, Paolini S. ↑,
75', Sbaffo A. ↓, Eusepi U. ↑,
75', Ogunseye R. ↓, Montevago D. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Giunti G. ⚽,
82', Calapai L. ↓, Tumbarello G. ↑,
82', Angella G. ↓, Nwanege K. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Candellori K. ⚽,
86', Giunti G. 🟨,
87', Tosi F. 🟨,
88', Toure N. ↓, Marranzino P. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 14).

Perugia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Sambenedettese has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sambenedettese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Perugia is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Perugia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
19.09.25	Ravenna - Perugia	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Perugia - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Bra - Perugia	2:2 ✺
22.08.25	Perugia - Guidonia Montecelio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTTT
- Sambenedettese Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
20.09.25	Sambenedettese - Carpi	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Pianese - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Sambenedettese - Forlì	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Gubbio - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Sambenedettese - Bra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
02.03.21	Perugia - Sambenedettese	1:1
08.11.20	Sambenedettese - Perugia	1:1

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