Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pietro Barbetti (Gubbio)

Referee: Castellone D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio


	Gubbio		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.10	2.20
	3.05	2.95	2.17
	3.22	3.10	2.43
	3.32	3.11	2.16	Watch
	3.10	2.90	2.40
	3.03	3.49	2.31	Watch
	3.10	3.15	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.83)	3.11 ↓ (3.15)	2.26 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gubbio
29.7%

Draw
29.6%

Perugia
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.2%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

28.6%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Gubbio - Perugia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bagnolini N. (G) 4. Baroncelli L. 15. Signorini A. (C) 6. Barry O. 27. Podda L. 34. Zallu F. 8. Rosaia G. 17. Fazzi N. 76. Barani L. 7. Spina M. 10. La Mantia A.	1. Zelezny R. (G) 4. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. (C) 5. Stramaccioni D. 7. Cisco A. 20. Carriero G. 8. Ladinetti R. 33. Langella C. 11. Borsoi M. 30. van Amersfoort P. 90. Vergani E.
Substitutes
92. Baldini E. 12. Barbanera L. (G) 81. Beretta G. 14. Cardascio A. 67. Carraro F. 47. Di Noia G. 70. Ferrini M. 73. Ghirardello T. 22. Marson L. (G) 77. Minta A. 11. Pinato M. 24. Piomboni L. 21. Zorzetto B.	10. Canotto L. 31. Conti G. 19. Dottori C. 77. Kabashi E. 12. Moro L. (G) 15. Papazov D. 29. Renault G. 9. Sabbatani A. 34. Sam A. 26. Seha S. 55. Strappini S. (G)
Coaches
Di Carlo D.	Diana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Barani L. 🟨,
14', Stramaccioni D. 🟨,
24', Stramaccioni D. ↓, Papazov D. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Riccardi D. ⚽, van Amersfoort P. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Barani L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', 1 - 2, Tozzuolo A. ⚽,
51', Fazzi N. ↓, Baldini E. ↑,
52', Rosaia G. 🟨,
64', Vergani E. ↓, Sabbatani A. ↑,
67', Spina M. ↓, Ghirardello T. ↑,
67', Podda L. ↓, Carraro F. ↑,
77', Cisco A. ↓, Renault G. ↑,
77', van Amersfoort P. ↓, Canotto L. ↑,
78', Zallu F. ↓, Ferrini M. ↑,
78', Barani L. ↓, Beretta G. ↑,
86', Baroncelli L. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Canotto L. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 14th and 9th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gubbio won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Gubbio has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:17 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gubbio against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:11 goals (averaging 1.2:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13
16	Gubbio	8	2	1	5	10:16	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Gubbio - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.49%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.26	Ravenna - Gubbio	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Gubbio - Ostia Mare	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Pescara - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gubbio - Latina	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Campobasso - Gubbio	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LLTWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.26	Perugia - Reggiana	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Grosseto - Perugia	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Perugia - Spezia	0:3 ✺
13.09.26	Ravenna - Perugia	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Perugia - Pineto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
18.01.26	Perugia - Gubbio	0:1
06.09.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:1
20.01.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:0
15.09.24	Perugia - Gubbio	1:1
17.03.24	Gubbio - Perugia	0:1
12.11.23	Perugia - Gubbio	1:0
17.03.21	Gubbio - Perugia	3:2

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