Match Info

Premier League - Relegation Group - Round 8

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Haras El-Hodod Stadium (Alexandria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Egypt	Kora Plus


	Pharco		El Mokawloon El Arab

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	2.75	2.37
	2.88	2.78	2.62	Watch
	3.02	2.79	2.87
	2.87	2.78	2.77	Watch
	2.8	2.63	2.8
	2.79	2.66	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.42)	2.73 ↓ (2.76)	2.68 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pharco
31.9%

Draw
33.7%

El Mokawloon El Arab
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

33.7%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

33.9%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pharco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

El Mokawloon El Arab has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pharco than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Mokawloon El Arab than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Pharco - El Mokawloon El Arab Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. El Mokawloon will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Pharco (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pharco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Shika M. (C) 17. Gaber M. 33. Ndiaye B. 31. Ahmed M. 11. Mostafa W. 4. Fakhri M. 12. Yassin H. 70. Fathy M. 23. Sayed M. 7. El Tayeb K. 32. Ndiay A.	1. Aboul Saoud M. (C) 4. Hussein H. 26. Kahraba 3. Hamed M. 23. Ochaya J. 14. Gamal M. 12. El Wahsh O. 22. Antar M. 9. Salim M. 32. Faisal H. 10. Naguib S.
Substitutes
22. Ezz M. 9. Farhat M. 21. Ghouma A. 20. Halimo 74. Hussein M. 77. Medhat W. R. 16. Nadim M. (G) 57. Reda H. 10. Yasser M.	35. Abdelhafiz Y. 21. Abdellah I. 74. Abdelnasser M. 19. Al Kadi I. 18. Fawzi M. (G) 20. Gaber I. 44. Hawash A. 24. Hesham N. 28. Ouled Behi A.
Coaches
El Ashri T.	Elsoudany S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Ndiaye B. ↓, Ezz M. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Salim M. ⚽, Kahraba (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mostafa W. ↓, Farhat M. ↑,
60', Salim M. ↓, Hawash A. ↑,
60', Antar M. ↓, Abdellah I. ↑,
61', Gaber M. ↓, Yasser M. ↑,
72', Yassin H. ↓, Ghouma A. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, El Tayeb K. ⚽, Fakhri M. (A),
78', Faisal H. ↓, Abdelnasser M. ↑,
81', Naguib S. ↓, Ouled Behi A. ↑,
81', El Wahsh O. ↓, Gaber I. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 A and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pharco won 2.

Pharco is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

El Mokawloon has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, El Mokawloon has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pharco won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pharco won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Arab Contractors	5	2	1	2	6:5	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Pharco - the odds 3.42 are the expected chance of winning is 27.16%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

El Mokawloon El Arab - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pharco FC
Egyptian Premier League
28.04.26	ZED - Pharco	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Pharco - El Gouna	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Petrojet - Pharco	1:0 ✺
13.04.26	Pharco - Haras El-Hodood	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Wadi Degla - Pharco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL
- El Mokawloon El Arab
Egyptian Premier League
28.04.26	El Mokawloon El Arab - Ghazl El Mahalla	1:1 ✺
23.04.26	El Mokawloon El Arab - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	El Mokawloon El Arab - Tala`ea El-Gaish	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	National Bank of Egypt - El Mokawloon El Arab	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	El Mokawloon El Arab - Ismaily	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Egyptian League Cup
09.12.25	Pharco - El Mokawloon El Arab	3:2
Egyptian Premier League
17.09.25	El Mokawloon El Arab - Pharco	1:1
20.05.24	El Mokawloon El Arab - Pharco	1:1
30.11.23	Pharco - El Mokawloon El Arab	1:1
01.03.23	Pharco - El Mokawloon El Arab	2:1
31.10.22	El Mokawloon El Arab - Pharco	0:0
23.08.22	El Mokawloon El Arab - Pharco	2:0

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