Match Info

Premier League

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	Police		Gorilla

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.35	6.3
	1.51	3.48	7.33	Watch
	1.5	3.2	7.5
	1.49	3.3	7.9
	1.48	3.5	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.47)	3.37 ↓ (3.4)	7.14 ↑ (6.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Police
60.4%

Draw
26.9%

Gorilla
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

26%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

24.2%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Police has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Gorilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorilla than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Police - Gorilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Police won 3.

Police is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Gorilla has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Police may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Police is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Police will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Police won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Police won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Police	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
10	Gorilla	2	1	0	1	1:1	0	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Police FC Kibungo
Rwanda Premier League
26.12.25	Bugesera - Police	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Etincelles - Police	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Police - Gasogi United	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	APR - Police	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Police - Musanze	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWTT
- Gorilla FC
Rwanda Premier League
28.12.25	Musanze - Gorilla	0:1 ✺
24.12.25	Gorilla - Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman	0:3 ✺
19.12.25	Gorilla - Rayon Sports	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Gorilla - APR	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Rutsiro - Gorilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Rwanda Premier League
20.10.24	Police - Gorilla	0:0
03.11.23	Police - Gorilla	1:0
20.01.23	Gorilla - Police	2:3
26.11.22	Police - Gorilla	0:1
25.02.22	Gorilla - Police	1:2
22.11.21	Police - Gorilla	0:0

Police - Gorilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide