Match Info

Serie B - Round 26

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponte Preta		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	11	5	1.27	Watch
	8.50	5.00	1.30
	9	4.95	1.27	Watch
	8.7	5.02	1.3
	9.31	5.13	1.31	Watch
	8.5	4.9	1.26
	9.4	4.7	1.28	Watch
	9.2	5.2	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.2 ↑ (4.1)	4.99 ↑ (3.45)	1.29 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
10%

Draw
18.4%

São Bernardo
71.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

27%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

26.6%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponte Preta's form might have worsened.

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Bernardo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Bernardo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ponte Preta - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: São Bernardo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 23. Palacios S. 3. Lucas Cunha 44. Gustavo Almeida 2. Julio 4. Diego M. L. 8. Andre Lima 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 20. Murilo 17. Miguel Morais 18. David da Hora	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson 97. Augusto 6. Para 8. Foguinho (C) 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Pedro Vitor 17. Romisson 29. Pedrinho 9. Felipe Garcia
Substitutes
22. Andrade R. 21. Coelho C. 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 9. Joao Damiao 6. Juan Rodrigues 7. Nicolas Araujo 13. Souza M. 15. Thevyn 32. Vinicius C. 16. Vitor Ribeiro	30. Breninho 89. Daniel Amorim 37. Davi D. 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 98. Leo Jaba 31. Lucas Fernandes 7. Lucas Rian 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Rodrigo Ferreira ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Gustavo Almeida ↓, Souza M. ↑,
66', Jemerson 🟨,
66', Palacios S. 🟨,
69', Para ↓, Mario Sergio ↑,
69', Romisson ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
76', Palacios S. 🟨,
79', 0 - 2, Mario Sergio ⚽, Pedro Vitor (A),
80', Felipe Garcia ↓, Leo Jaba ↑,
80', Pedro Vitor ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
80', David da Hora 🟨,
82', Miguel Morais ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
83', Murilo ↓, Juan Rodrigues ↑,
84', Dudu Miraima ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
85', Leo Jaba 🟨,
87', Danilo Barcelos ↓, Nicolas Araujo ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 0.

Ponte Preta has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, São Bernardo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ponte Preta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Bernardo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Andre Lima (Inactive) Danilo Barcelos (Muscle Injury) David da Hora (Inactive) Diego Porfirio (Injury) Elvis (Knee Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Inactive) Kevyson (Knee Injury) Lucas Cunha (Inactive) Murilo (Inactive) Palacios S. (Inactive) Rodrigo Souza (Inactive)

There will not play in São Bernardo: Lucas Rian (Suspended) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Last Results with these Odds

Ponte Preta - the odds 4.1 are the expected chance of winning is 22.7%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.26	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLTL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
28.08.26	Goiás - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Fortaleza - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	São Bernardo - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
07.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.02.24	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	3:3
05.02.22	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0
25.02.17	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	1:0
22.02.15	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	2:0

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