Match Info

Serie B - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	América Mineiro		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.09	8.00	21.00	Watch
	1.11	9.25	15.50
	1.11	8.50	21.00	Watch
	1.12	9.91	26.28
	1.12	8.29	20.03
	1.08	9.90	26.00
	1.12	8.02	20.00	Watch
	1.12	7.80	18.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.53)	8.71 ↑ (3.9)	20.98 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
84.7%

Draw
10.8%

Ponte Preta
4.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.9%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

23.1%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in América Mineiro's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-21.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with América Mineiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

América Mineiro - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - América MG (1.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): América Mineiro will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Bruno Brigido (G) 15. Alex Silva 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 4. Rafa Barcelos 25. Ostchega T. 88. Gustavo Barreto 55. Otavio Goncalves 37. Julio Cesar 9. Willian Bigode 7. Guilherme Parede 20. Paulo Victor	30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 2. Julio 4. Diego M. L. (C) 44. Gustavo Almeida 13. Souza M. 6. Juan Rodrigues 35. Gustavo Telles 8. Andrade R. 7. Nicolas Araujo 17. Miguel Morais 9. Joao Damiao
Substitutes
5. Elizari F. 31. Fabio 1. Gustavo (G) 13. Heitor 39. Italo G. 93. Jorge Jimenez 26. Manoel 99. Marcelo Macola 30. Montes L. 14. Pineiro R. 3. Sosa L. 19. William (G)	20. Cicala G. 19. Coelho C. 16. Guilherme Martins 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 15. Kawann 18. Thevyn 32. Vinicius C.
Coaches
Gonzaga Leite D.	Marcio Zanardi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Guilherme Parede ↓, Pineiro R. ↑,
46', Otavio Goncalves ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Willian Bigode ⚽, Elizari F. (A),
59', 2 - 0, Pineiro R. ⚽, Ostchega T. (A),
64', Miguel Morais ↓, Coelho C. ↑,
64', Andrade R. ↓, Thevyn ↑,
68', Nicolas Araujo ↓, Vinicius C. ↑,
71', Paulo Victor ↓, Marcelo Macola ↑,
79', Julio Cesar ↓, Italo G. ↑,
79', Juan Rodrigues ↓, Cicala G. ↑,
84', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
90+7', Cicala G. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, América MG is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Emerson Santos (Injury) Gabriel Domingos (Injury) Segovia M. (Injury)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Muscle Injury) Elvis (Knee Injury) Kevyson (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Gonzalo Mastriani (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Diego Porfirio (Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Inactive) Rodrigo Souza (Inactive) Thalys (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, América MG won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
24.08.26	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
20.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Botafogo SP - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	América Mineiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.26	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.04.26	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	1:0
24.09.24	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	0:2
09.06.24	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0
07.11.20	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	1:1
Copa do Brasil
22.09.20	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	3:1
16.09.20	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
08.08.20	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	0:1

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